The Confederation of British Industry has reported a second consecutive monthly improvement in UK manufacturing order books, with its September balance reaching the strongest level since July 2023.
The CBI’s monthly order-book balance increased to -9 in September from -25 in August. A negative reading still means more manufacturers regard orders as below normal than above normal, but the change extends a sharp recovery from early summer. The balance has risen by 36 points over two months, the largest two-month increase in the survey’s 49-year history.
Forward indicators improved alongside the order measure. The survey’s gauge of output expectations for the coming months rose to its strongest level since March, while the balance for expected selling prices eased to +12 from +22 in August. The combination points to firmer demand expectations alongside less widespread pressure to increase prices.
The September reading builds on the improvement recorded in August, when total order books rose to -25 from -45 in July and export orders returned to what respondents regarded as a normal level for the first time since June 2022.
The latest result still represents stabilisation rather than uniformly strong demand. Survey balances measure the difference between the proportion of companies reporting stronger and weaker conditions, so a rapid improvement can occur while many factories remain below their preferred order levels. The direction and durability of the movement now matter more than the headline alone.
Manufacturers have spent much of 2026 managing weak demand alongside high labour, energy, and financing costs. Companies have responded by controlling inventories, delaying some investment decisions, and concentrating capital on automation or productivity projects capable of producing measurable operating savings.
The CBI data are also becoming more consistent with other indicators suggesting that UK manufacturing has avoided a renewed broad contraction. Recent purchasing managers’ surveys have remained close to or above the threshold separating expansion from contraction, while official production data have shown periods of stronger output in pharmaceuticals, electronics, and basic metals.
Cameron Martin, senior economist at the CBI, said there were “growing signs that conditions are stabilising for manufacturers”. September’s order figure supports that assessment, although companies that reduced stocks, recruitment, or capital commitments during the weaker period are unlikely to reverse those decisions solely on one month of survey data.
The selling-price measure provides another useful signal. A fall from +22 to +12 means fewer manufacturers expect to raise prices over the next quarter, although the balance remains positive. Continued easing would give factories more room to rebuild volumes without choosing between absorbing higher costs and passing them to customers.
The speed of the order recovery is notable because June and July produced a much weaker picture. The CBI’s total order-book balance stood at -45 in June, its lowest level since September 2020, while output volumes were falling across most manufacturing subsectors. July remained difficult, with orders or sales still the most commonly cited constraint on output.
Moving from that position to -9 in September represents a substantial change in workload expectations, even though the balance remains below normal. The next question is whether factories begin converting improved order visibility into higher production, recruitment, and investment rather than simply rebuilding depleted order books.
Export demand will be one of the important variables. August’s improvement was accompanied by export order books returning to a normal level, and a sustained recovery would give manufacturers greater confidence to plan output beyond domestic demand. A renewed deterioration would leave September looking more like a correction from unusually weak summer readings.
Production capacity is rarely adjusted immediately after an order survey changes direction. Manufacturers first need evidence that orders will persist long enough to justify additional shifts, material purchases, overtime, recruitment, or equipment spending. Working capital also increases as companies buy components and build work in progress before customers pay for finished goods.
That lag means the strongest evidence of a genuine manufacturing recovery will come from several indicators moving together. Higher output, stronger export demand, improving utilisation, firmer employment, and renewed capital spending would provide broader confirmation than order books alone.
The September survey has nevertheless moved one of the sector’s weakest measures considerably closer to normal. After two months of unusually rapid improvement, UK manufacturers enter the final quarter with better order visibility than they have had for three years; the remaining test is whether that improvement lasts long enough to reach factory output and investment.
