Mission Possible Partnership (MPP) has recorded 36 clean industrial projects reaching final investment decision over the past 12 months, with China securing 23 of those commitments as investment in lower-emission manufacturing shifts towards regions offering competitive energy and industrial development conditions.
The findings were published on 4 November in the sixth edition of MPP’s Global Project Tracker, supported by the Industrial Transition Accelerator.
The research examines commercial-scale projects developing production methods intended to reduce emissions from sectors including metals, chemicals, cement and fuels for aviation and shipping.
China secured approximately $45 billion of investment associated with 23 newly financed plants. Emerging and developing economies attracted $5.3 billion across six large-scale facilities, while developed economies secured approximately $4.8 billion for six projects during the reporting period.
The figures describe investment commitments within the tracker’s defined clean industrial categories. They are not a measure of total manufacturing investment, nor do they include every industrial project under development worldwide.
A final investment decision, or FID, represents the point at which a project has obtained the necessary approvals and financing commitments to proceed towards execution.
That milestone is distinct from the completion of construction or the beginning of commercial production. An industrial project may require several years of equipment procurement, construction, testing and commissioning after reaching FID.
MPP’s methodology indicates that the transition from final investment decision to operation typically takes four to six years, although individual projects can progress at different rates.
The 36 decisions therefore provide evidence of investment momentum rather than 36 additional plants already manufacturing low-emission products.
The tracker also shows that China accounts for approximately 49% of clean industrial plants currently operating or under construction within its coverage.
This concentration reflects substantial investment across alternative fuels, chemicals and materials, supported by domestic demand, industrial planning and renewable electricity generation.
MPP identifies access to relatively inexpensive renewable electricity as a major factor influencing the location of new projects.
Energy costs are particularly important in manufacturing processes that use electricity directly as a production input. Electrolysis, electric heating and some metals processing technologies can require substantial and sustained electrical supply.
In hydrogen production through water electrolysis, electricity drives the separation of water into hydrogen and oxygen. The amount and cost of electricity required affect the economics of the resulting hydrogen.
Hydrogen can then be used as a feedstock in other industrial processes, including the manufacture of ammonia and certain synthetic fuels.
Clean ammonia projects may combine hydrogen produced using low-emission electricity with nitrogen obtained from air. The resulting ammonia can be used in fertiliser manufacture or supplied to other industrial and energy applications.
The complete production system must coordinate hydrogen availability, nitrogen supply, synthesis equipment, utilities and storage. Its financial viability depends on the costs and performance of those linked processes.
Similar considerations apply to synthetic fuels manufactured from hydrogen and carbon-containing materials. Their production can require substantial electricity, along with suitable feedstocks and additional chemical processing equipment.
As a result, access to renewable electricity can influence where these facilities are developed, but low power prices alone do not ensure that an investment will proceed.
Projects also need suitable industrial sites, transport connections, equipment supply, financing and customers prepared to purchase their output.
China’s position is particularly strong in clean methanol and aluminium. MPP estimates that the country accounts for more than 90% of clean methanol production capacity and more than 40% of clean aluminium capacity within the tracker’s scope.
The organisation identifies 17 aluminium smelters in China operating with renewable electricity, with another two under construction.
Primary aluminium production is electricity intensive because electrical energy is used in the smelting process. The source of that electricity can therefore substantially influence the emissions associated with manufacturing the metal.
Renewable electricity can reduce emissions from power consumption, although the overall emissions profile of aluminium production also depends on raw material processing, plant operation and other sources.
Chinese industrial policy has supported investment across several of these sectors, including the development of alternative fuel markets and changes to emissions trading arrangements.
Alongside China’s expansion, MPP identifies a group of emerging economies attracting investment into commercial-scale lower-emission industrial facilities.
Brazil, Egypt, Kenya, Paraguay, South Africa and Thailand are among the countries identified within this developing industrial geography.
MPP reports that emerging markets across this group have secured approximately $32 billion across 20 projects to date, with additional projects under development.
Some of the newly financed facilities will manufacture products used in established markets rather than introducing entirely new categories of industrial material.
Two projects in Kenya and Paraguay, for example, are intended to produce fertiliser for domestic and export customers.
In Kenya, the KenGen Kaishan development at the Olkaria geothermal field is designed to use locally available geothermal energy to support lower-emission fertiliser production.
Geothermal generation can provide a relatively continuous source of electricity, which is relevant to chemical manufacturing processes that benefit from sustained operation.
Its suitability depends on the resource, generating equipment and cost of supplying power to the industrial installation.
Local fertiliser production could reduce reliance on imported finished products in certain markets, although its eventual contribution will depend on plant commissioning, production economics and distribution arrangements.
Sustainable aviation fuel is another major category in the investment tracker. MPP reports that approximately one third of the recent clean industrial investments concern SAF projects.
Different SAF production routes depend on different feedstocks and equipment. Some facilities process suitable oils and fats through hydroprocessing, while synthetic aviation fuel production may combine renewable hydrogen with captured carbon dioxide.
The availability of feedstock can limit the expansion of certain processes. Waste oils and fats have competing uses and cannot necessarily be supplied in sufficient quantities to meet every proposed aviation fuel requirement.
Synthetic routes offer different scaling possibilities but may require substantial quantities of low-emission electricity, hydrogen and carbon dioxide, alongside complex industrial equipment.
The tracker identifies a commercial-scale synthetic aviation fuel project in South Africa among those reaching an investment decision during 2026.
Its progress towards operation will depend on construction and the development of the required feedstock and energy infrastructure.
The wider investment pipeline remains much larger than the number of projects reaching FID. MPP identifies more than 800 developing clean industrial projects representing approximately $4.8 trillion in potential capital expenditure.
That estimate is conditional on the projects progressing. It does not represent finance already committed or equipment orders that manufacturers have secured.
The organisation identifies six areas affecting the conversion of proposals into financed industrial projects: demand for clean products, energy availability, supply chains, community engagement, trade arrangements and access to finance.
Long-term customer contracts are particularly relevant where new manufacturing processes initially produce materials or fuels at a higher cost than established alternatives.
A project developer must demonstrate that sufficient output can be sold at prices supporting the capital investment and continuing operating costs.
Financing arrangements also depend on the engineering and construction risks associated with the proposed plant. Investors need confidence that the technology can be installed, commissioned and operated as intended.
Shared infrastructure presents another challenge. A new manufacturing facility may depend on electricity networks, pipelines, ports or storage systems being developed by separate organisations.
Delays or uncertainty affecting those connections can influence the timing and commercial viability of the industrial project itself.
Faustine Delasalle, chief executive of Mission Possible Partnership, has called for the number of financed clean industrial plants to increase from tens to hundreds each year.
The organisation’s findings show that the largest concentration of newly financed projects remains in China, with additional investment now reaching a broader group of emerging economies.
For industrial equipment suppliers, engineering contractors and manufacturers, the confirmed final investment decisions represent projects progressing towards procurement and construction. The much larger unfinanced pipeline remains dependent on commercial agreements, infrastructure availability and financing decisions before those opportunities can proceed.
