Britain has set a target to increase the amount of freight moved by rail by at least 40% by 2040, creating an intermediate milestone towards the existing ambition of at least 75% growth by 2050. Both targets are measured in net tonne kilometres, linking the policy to the weight of freight carried and the distance it travels.
The government estimates that rail freight currently moves goods worth £33.7 billion each year. Reaching the 2040 target would raise that figure to around £49.5 billion, adding almost £16 billion to the annual value of goods transported by rail.
Great British Railways will be responsible for delivering the growth objective once established. The Railways Bill provides for the Transport Secretary to set the target and embeds freight growth within the new organisation’s decision-making, supported by two statutory duties and a dedicated GBR board member responsible for freight.
The government has also set expectations for individual commodity groups. High-value goods could increase by 65% by 2040, construction traffic by 45%, and critical goods by 7%, again measured in net tonne kilometres. Those categories require very different infrastructure, rolling stock, terminal, and operating arrangements.
Construction materials already suit rail’s ability to move dense loads in large quantities over long distances. A single freight train can carry enough material to build around 30 homes, according to Network Rail, but adding 45% to construction traffic would require more than train paths. Aggregates terminals, sidings, unloading equipment, storage areas, and road connections at the final destination all have to handle the additional volume.
High-value goods place a different emphasis on the system. Cars, white goods, medicines, food, and other manufactured products depend more heavily on service frequency, reliability, terminal handling, and predictable transit times because rail is competing with road transport that can often provide a direct point-to-point journey.
A 65% increase in that traffic would require greater integration between rail terminals, factories, ports, and distribution centres. Automotive freight needs specialist wagons and secure compounds, while containerised goods depend on terminals capable of loading and unloading trains rapidly enough to maintain both rolling-stock utilisation and delivery schedules.
Network capacity remains a practical constraint. Freight trains regularly cross several passenger routes during one journey, and differences in speed can reduce the number of usable paths on heavily trafficked corridors. Longer and heavier trains can improve the amount carried per service, but route clearances, loops, junction layouts, signalling, and terminal lengths determine where those productivity gains are possible.
The latest available national statistics show that 16.5 billion net tonne kilometres of freight were moved by rail in 2024-25, following two consecutive years of growth. The longer-term market has changed considerably since coal traffic declined, leaving domestic intermodal, construction, metals, and other industrial flows to account for a larger share of rail freight activity.
That changing commodity mix also affects traction requirements. Freight services frequently operate across both electrified and non-electrified sections of the network, which can make diesel locomotives operationally convenient even where much of a route has overhead power available. Battery and bi-mode traction can reduce dependence on diesel in some applications, while further electrification of strategic freight corridors would alter the operating options available to carriers.
Meeting the 2040 target is estimated to save up to one million tonnes of carbon dioxide a year compared with carrying the same freight by road. The precise reduction will depend on the traffic displaced, locomotive technology, train utilisation, and electricity generation mix, but the target would involve a substantial increase in rail’s share of industrial and consumer goods movements.
Private capital will have to develop alongside network policy. Freight operators invest in locomotives and wagons, while ports, manufacturers, terminal companies, and property developers fund handling equipment, sidings, storage, and distribution infrastructure. Those assets can have long operating lives, making certainty over future network access and freight policy relevant well before the 2040 milestone arrives.
GBR’s strategic oversight of access will therefore sit close to the centre of delivery. Passenger and freight demand compete for the same infrastructure on many routes, and the statutory target will have to be reflected in timetable planning, enhancement programmes, renewals, and decisions affecting terminals and junctions rather than existing only as a national percentage.
The 40% milestone gives that process a measurable destination. Intermediate progress can be tracked in net tonne kilometres, terminal investment, additional train services, and the commodity groups gaining rail share, providing an indication well before 2040 of whether network and logistics capacity are developing quickly enough to support the target.
