UK manufacturing remained in expansion during September, although renewed cost pressure and slower production growth left the sector with a less comfortable mix of conditions than the headline purchasing managers’ index suggested. The S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI increased to 51.9 from 51.7 in August, while its output component fell from 52.1 to 51.5 for a second consecutive monthly slowdown.
Production still increased for a sixth month, supported by rising new orders from domestic and overseas customers, but the September increase was the weakest in that sequence. New business grew for a tenth consecutive month and more quickly than in August, while export demand included orders from the US, Asia-Pacific, Brazil and Australia, leaving order intake stronger than the change in physical output.
Prices moved in the opposite direction from production momentum. Manufacturers recorded the first increase in cost pressure for four months, with input costs showing their broadest rise since June and selling-price inflation also accelerating. S&P Global director Rob Dobson said the survey’s price measures had shifted from declining inflation pressure to renewed increases, interrupting an easing trend that had provided some relief earlier in the year.
Supplier performance also deteriorated, with average delivery times lengthening by the greatest degree since June. Companies responding to the survey cited port congestion, shipping delays, geopolitical disruption and associated shortages of raw materials, adding supply availability to the price pressures moving through purchasing departments. Longer lead times can affect production before a component is technically unavailable, because factories either carry more stock, accept less favourable purchasing terms or reschedule work around the material that can still be obtained.
The manufacturing recovery remained uneven across both product categories and company size. Investment-goods producers recorded their fastest output growth since the end of 2017, while consumer and intermediate goods contracted, and smaller manufacturers reported sharp declines in production and new business as medium and large producers continued to expand. The aggregate PMI therefore combines a strong capital-goods segment with materially weaker conditions elsewhere in the sector.
Employment increased for a sixth consecutive month and remained close to August’s two-year high, with companies adding staff in response to new orders and growing backlogs. Outstanding work expanded for the second time in three months, suggesting that production capacity has not risen as quickly as incoming demand at every business, although finished-goods and purchasing inventories both declined during September.
Running inventories lower while supplier lead times deteriorate leaves less room for disruption if orders continue growing. Carrying additional stock ties up working capital, particularly when components and raw materials are becoming more expensive, while operating with leaner inventories makes production schedules more exposed to late deliveries. The balance becomes more difficult for smaller manufacturers that have less purchasing power and fewer alternative sources than large groups.
Confidence remained positive but weakened from August’s six-month high, with 49% of manufacturers expecting output to increase during the coming year. Respondents cited planned expansion, product launches, investment projects and hopes for stronger market confidence alongside concerns over geopolitical conditions, the wider economy and domestic policy. The survey was conducted between 10 and 25 September, so the figures represent conditions through most of the final month of the third quarter rather than a retrospective reading assembled after the period ended.
The stronger performance of investment-goods manufacturers provides one of the more useful indicators beneath the headline number because machinery and capital-equipment demand normally reflects spending decisions extending beyond immediate consumer purchasing. Faster growth in that part of the sector can support component makers and engineering suppliers further down the chain, although the contraction recorded among intermediate goods producers shows that the improvement is not yet feeding evenly through manufacturing.
Renewed input-cost inflation complicates that expansion because producers have to decide how quickly higher purchasing and energy costs can be passed through to customers without weakening order intake. The September survey shows that factories have already increased selling prices more rapidly, which protects margin where customers accept the change but can place additional pressure on buyers operating under fixed budgets or long-term contracts.
The final reading remains on the expansion side of the 50-point threshold and improves slightly on August at headline level, while employment, new orders and output all continue to grow. September nevertheless produced weaker production momentum at the same time that costs and supplier delays intensified, leaving the durability of the current upturn increasingly dependent on whether order growth continues strongly enough to absorb those pressures during the closing months of 2026.
