Alstom has cut its annual train production forecast and revised its financial guidance after engineering and certification problems disrupted its Coradia Max programme in Germany. The manufacturer produced 1,860 rail cars in the first half of its 2026/27 financial year, compared with 2,017 a year earlier, and now expects approximately 4,000 cars for the full year instead of the previously planned 4,400 to 4,500.
Production on Coradia Max was paused during the first quarter while the company addressed technical issues and sought to limit later retrofit work. Further testing requirements and additional engineering reviews extended the programme’s homologation timetable. The first project’s certification is now expected around March 2028, with later projects following, according to chief executive Martin Sion’s comments on 2 November.
Train homologation links engineering tests to the authorisations required before vehicles enter passenger service. Design calculations, physical trials and technical documentation must demonstrate compliance with applicable requirements. When a test sequence is expanded or a design changes, the additional evidence may delay approval even when production of the affected vehicles has resumed.
Coradia Max is a double-deck regional-train platform with multiple German customer contracts. Alstom has identified six affected projects, with the first development and certification activity informing later vehicles. When testing or design work on the initial project slips, dependent programmes can require additional engineering, revised schedules or updated evidence rather than progressing independently on their original dates.
Alstom reported technical issues, longer testing requirements and execution weaknesses that became clearer through reviews of critical rolling-stock projects. Specialist teams identified measures to address the problems behind the production pause, while further examination of the validation programme extended the timetable. The engineering and project planning work therefore affects both vehicles already in production and those due to follow.
Changes to the train design can require revised components, new assembly instructions or checks on units already built. A longer homologation programme can also leave completed vehicles awaiting approval and delay contractual milestone payments. These connected effects place pressure on factory scheduling, project margins and working capital, even where individual production operations have restarted.
Alstom recorded €9.3 billion in first-half sales, up 3% on a reported basis, and orders of €11.0 billion against €10.5 billion a year earlier. Its preliminary adjusted EBIT margin was approximately minus 4%, compared with 6.4% in the prior-year period. Gross-margin revisions on projects executed for, and from, Germany contributed heavily to that deterioration.
Six German Coradia Max contracts, with a combined value of about €5 billion, are affected by the programme difficulties, according to the company’s 2 November analyst discussion as reported by Reuters. Revised project economics are negative across the six contracts. The affected work forms part of Alstom’s wider order book rather than describing the performance of every rolling-stock programme.
For the full financial year, the company now expects an adjusted EBIT margin of around 1%, rather than the previous forecast of approximately 6.5%. Its free-cash-flow outlook has shifted from positive to an outflow of about €1.5 billion. Later approval and entry into service are expected to move milestone receipts into subsequent years, adding to the consequences of the lower production target.
First-half free cash flow was negative €1.248 billion, and net debt stood at €1.1 billion on 30 September, compared with €0.4 billion at the end of March. Alstom is reviewing options to reduce debt by about €2 billion by September 2027. The first-half figures are preliminary and unaudited; the company has scheduled its detailed results for 17 November.
Train builders have to coordinate engineering evidence, suppliers and assembly plans while the certification basis is being finalised. A component may be manufactured to an existing drawing even as system-level testing identifies a need for additional measurements or configuration changes. Revising the test programme can therefore affect completed units, subsequent production batches and the timing of customer acceptance.
Alstom is deploying dedicated project reviews, tighter escalation of technical risks and measures aimed at improving cost and procurement control. Management is also examining the group’s operating and organisational models, with decisions expected in early 2027. Those changes are intended to help restore predictable project execution alongside the work required to complete Coradia Max validation.
Coradia Max’s first certification is expected around March 2028, with subsequent German projects dependent on the validation and delivery sequence established for the initial trains. Alstom’s revised full-year manufacturing plan and cash-flow guidance already reflect the extended timetable. Further technical approvals, consistent production runs and the timing of customer acceptance will show whether its remedial programme is restoring predictable delivery.
