Roland Berger has warned that shortages and concentrated supply chains for titanium and rare-earth materials could restrict European civil aerospace and defence production as manufacturers attempt to raise output.
The consultancy estimates that aerospace demand for titanium could reach between 600,000 and 700,000 tonnes over the coming decade, with a possible cumulative shortfall of around 100,000 tonnes if alternative supplies and processing capacity fail to develop quickly enough.
Titanium is widely used in aircraft structures, landing gear, engine components, fasteners, and other applications requiring high strength, corrosion resistance, and performance at elevated temperatures. Its use has expanded alongside composite airframes because the metal offers favourable compatibility with carbon fibre materials.
Rare-earth elements are also embedded across modern aerospace and defence systems, including permanent magnets, electric motors, actuators, radar, sensors, communications equipment, guidance systems, and high-performance electronics.
Supply vulnerability arises less from geological scarcity than from the concentration of extraction, refining, and processing. Europe imports much of the material and intermediate product required by its manufacturers, exposing production to geopolitical restrictions, trade disputes, transport disruption, and competition from other sectors.
Aircraft manufacturers already carry order backlogs measured in years, and approved material shortages can slow machining, forging, casting, engine production, and final assembly even when factories and labour are otherwise available.
Qualification slows the search for alternatives
Aerospace manufacturers cannot change alloys or suppliers as freely as companies in less regulated sectors because material specifications, production routes, heat treatment, inspection, and component designs are qualified through extensive testing and certification.
A titanium grade obtained from a new producer may meet its general chemical specification while still requiring substantial approval work before entering a safety-critical component. Manufacturers need evidence covering consistency, fatigue behaviour, fracture performance, traceability, and process stability.
Permanent magnets and electronic materials create similar constraints because changes can affect thermal behaviour, electromagnetic performance, corrosion resistance, and long-term reliability. Identifying a new supplier is only the beginning of a qualification process that may extend across several production cycles.
Stockpiling offers temporary protection but ties up capital and cannot compensate indefinitely for structural shortages. Inventory planning must also consider the form in which material is held, since sponge, billet, bar, sheet, forging stock, and finished components are not interchangeable.
Long-term purchasing agreements can support investment by providing producers with greater certainty over future demand. Aerospace customers, however, may be reluctant to commit to volumes or prices across an entire programme when delivery schedules remain subject to change.
Recycling provides another route, particularly because titanium machining can generate substantial quantities of high-value swarf. Closed-loop systems can return carefully segregated material to production, provided contamination is controlled and traceability maintained.
Near-net-shape manufacturing, additive processes, and improved machining strategies can reduce the amount of input material consumed for each finished component. These technologies lower waste but do not remove qualification requirements or eliminate demand for high-quality feedstock.
Engineers may also assess alternative alloys, composites, motor technologies, or component architectures, although substitutions made solely to address supply risk can introduce weight, cost, maintenance, or performance penalties elsewhere in the system.
European critical raw material policy is encouraging domestic mining, refining, and processing, but projects face lengthy planning, permitting, financing, and construction schedules. Material extracted within Europe may still need to leave the region for specialist processing before returning to an aerospace manufacturer.
Defence demand adds further pressure because military equipment programmes compete for many of the same materials used in commercial aircraft, electric vehicles, renewable energy, and industrial automation. Government stockpiles or priority allocation could protect selected programmes while tightening availability elsewhere.
No single intervention can remove the risk, so diversified suppliers, recycling, more efficient designs, strategic inventories, and procurement agreements will need to operate together. Greater visibility beyond direct suppliers is equally important because a European component manufacturer may have little knowledge of where the underlying sponge or rare-earth concentrate originated.
Aircraft production targets depend on materials, qualified processing, logistics, and approved suppliers as much as final assembly capacity. Europe’s backlog represents substantial future revenue, but orders cannot be converted into completed aircraft if critical metals and magnetic materials remain unavailable.
Material strategy is therefore becoming part of programme planning, product design, capital investment, and industrial policy. The availability of titanium and rare-earth products may increasingly determine which platforms reach production, how quickly output can rise, and where future manufacturing capacity is located.
