A recent report from strategic consultancy Stonehaven warns that the UK’s current approach to heat decarbonisation is unlikely to meet the Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) targets without a radical rethink.
The report, titled “Powering Homes, Powering Growth: A practical path to heat decarbonisation,” critiques government initiatives promoting heat pumps over the past fifteen years, offering policy solutions to improve uptake.
According to the CCC, heat pump demand must increase by nearly 50% annually to reach approximately 450,000 installations by 2030, escalating to 1.5 million by 2035. Despite four government-backed initiatives over the past decade and a half, deployment remains significantly below target.
To address this, the report proposes a fundamental reset of the UK’s heat decarbonisation strategy through the forthcoming Warm Homes Plan. It advocates for a framework encouraging competition among multiple low-carbon heating solutions — including hybrid systems, bivalent setups, and emerging technologies like heat batteries.
The proposal aims to shift the government’s central question from merely installing heat pumps to enabling consumers to determine the most suitable heat decarbonisation systems for their homes. It recommends reforming the Clean Heat Market Mechanism (CHMM) and phasing out the Boiler Upgrade Scheme, replacing it with a new “boiler tax” linked to the carbon cost of gas heating. This would incentivise low-carbon solutions by rewarding actual emissions reductions.
Accelerating innovation is another key recommendation, including support for meter-splitting to allow sophisticated tariffs and new consumer products that make low-carbon heating more affordable and attractive. Adam Bell, Director of Policy at Stonehaven, emphasised the need for a pragmatic reset, stating, “After 15 years of limited progress, it is time for a pragmatic reset. Rather than focusing on replacing gas boilers with a single alternative, the UK should encourage a diverse mix of household-level decarbonisation solutions, enabling businesses and consumers to drive change together.”
Bell further asserted, “Decarbonising heat will not be achieved through central planning from Whitehall. It will be achieved when households are empowered to make the right choices for their homes. By widening the path to decarbonisation, we can reach our climate targets at a pace that once seemed impossible.” For more information, visit Stonehaven’s official website.
