EU transmission operators positive about energy supply going into Winter

The EU has announced an improved outlook for energy supply across its member states, with only some members, namely those in remote areas and islands, experiencing potential risks from extreme weather conditions and unplanned outages.

The forecast comes courtesy of the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) Winter Outlook 2023-2024.

The report finds that the security of supply situation in the EU has improved significantly since last year, with EU gas storage filled around two and a half months ahead of the 1 November deadline set out in the EU Gas Regulation. ENTSO-E called the outlook the result of a strong European preparedness effort.

The report cites a significantly expanded power generation fleet since last year, including increased renewables, which have overcompensated the decrease in conventional thermal, as well as lower forecasts for unplanned outages this Winter. At the same time, electricity demand is forecasted to remain stable.

According to the report, only some risks to electricity supply were found in remote areas including Ireland, Northern Ireland, Malta and Cyprus.

All the risks identified for the next Winter season are driven by weather conditions in combination with other adverse factors. According to the TSO Network, dedicated non-market resources would help to alleviate such risks in Ireland and Malta.

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Additionally, the report finds that Finland may also face some risk in the event of exceptionally adverse operational conditions combined with cold weather and high unplanned outages.

Regional risks were also identified in France, Belgium and Great Britain, driven by the sensitivity of the demand in France to temperature and are present only under extreme weather conditions combined with high unplanned outages. According to the report, national studies confirm that flow-based market coupling would enable more imports, which would address such risks.

Additionally, the report outlines the situation in Ukraine and Moldova; since March 2022, both have been synchronised with the Continental European power system.

According to the report, the situation in Ukraine remains uncertain due to potential attacks on energy infrastructure, according to national experts. TSO Ukrenergo carried out a restoration and renovation programme to prepare for Winter 2023–2024, including the increase of interconnection capacity with neighbours.

Furthermore, safety measures against missile strike threats were implemented to mitigate risks. The report states that the power supply situation in Moldova is adequate but reliant on gas supplies and the availability of one single utility in the Transnistrian region.

ENTSO-E‘s report adds how the Moldovan power system operator (Moldelectrica) faces challenges in balancing the system, although adds that several actions are being taken to mitigate such risks.