ASML has raised its 2026 sales and margin outlook after reporting second-quarter net sales of €9.33bn and net income of €2.92bn, as semiconductor manufacturers accelerate investment in logic and memory capacity.
The Dutch lithography equipment manufacturer now expects full-year sales of between €43bn and €45bn, with a gross margin of 54% to 56%. Third-quarter sales are forecast at €11bn to €12bn, accompanied by a gross margin of between 55% and 57%.
During the second quarter, ASML recorded a 54% gross margin and €2.76bn in installed-base management sales. The company shipped 86 new lithography systems, alongside used equipment, as chipmakers increased capital expenditure linked to artificial intelligence infrastructure and advanced computing.
Demand for AI processors is extending through the semiconductor manufacturing chain because leading-edge logic requires advanced patterning, while high-bandwidth and conventional memory manufacturers are adding capacity to support rapidly expanding data-centre workloads. ASML supplies the extreme ultraviolet and deep ultraviolet tools used across many of those production steps.
Although EUV equipment receives much of the attention surrounding advanced nodes, DUV systems remain essential across mature and leading-edge processes. A single chip can pass through numerous lithography stages, and many layers do not require the smallest available geometry.
ASML is examining a production increase of around 30% for low numerical aperture EUV systems during 2027, followed by the possibility of a further expansion in 2028. Additional capacity is also being considered for immersion DUV equipment as customers bring forward fab investment.
Increasing lithography output requires coordinated expansion across a concentrated supply network. Each system contains specialised optical assemblies, lasers, vacuum equipment, precision motion systems, metrology, electronics, control software, and large machined structures, many of which are produced by suppliers with similarly long investment and qualification cycles.
Fab announcements can therefore move faster than the equipment base needed to turn buildings into wafer output. Tool availability, cleanroom completion, utilities, installation teams, process qualification, and customer ramp performance all determine when nominal capacity begins producing saleable devices.
ASML’s installed-base revenue also reflects the scale of its existing equipment population. Lithography tools require field service, calibration, software, replacement modules, productivity upgrades, and process support throughout operating lives that can extend across several semiconductor generations.
Productivity improvements to installed equipment allow chipmakers to increase wafer output without constructing another production line, while ASML gains recurring revenue that is less dependent on new system shipments. Service capability consequently becomes a manufacturing constraint in its own right as the global tool population grows.
AI demand is not creating a uniform semiconductor recovery. Advanced logic and memory investment is rising rapidly, while automotive, industrial, consumer, and communications markets continue to move through different inventory cycles. Mature-node production remains essential for analogue devices, sensors, controllers, power semiconductors, and connectivity products.
ASML must consequently expand advanced-system capacity without neglecting the broader DUV market on which many industrial supply chains depend. Shortages in apparently mature devices can still interrupt vehicle, machinery, and equipment production when alternative components require redesign and qualification.
European policy is attempting to increase regional semiconductor manufacturing, although fabs depend on a much broader ecosystem of equipment, materials, measurement, packaging, and technical skills. Investment in European semiconductor metrology capacity illustrates how defect detection and process control must expand alongside lithography if new wafer capacity is to achieve competitive yields.
The transition towards high numerical aperture EUV adds another substantial engineering programme. The newer platform offers finer patterning and the possibility of reducing some multi-patterning steps, although adoption will be shaped by tool cost, mask infrastructure, resist performance, process economics, and the strategies of the largest chipmakers.
Manufacturing more systems while introducing a new platform increases pressure on engineering, production, supplier quality, and field support. Rapid volume growth can expose weaknesses in component availability, process capability, documentation, and maintenance that remain less visible during stable output.
ASML’s stronger financial performance provides room to support those investments, while the proposed capacity increases show how quickly AI expenditure is moving upstream into semiconductor equipment. Orders alone will not create usable chip capacity, however, and the pace of expansion will depend on whether toolmakers and their suppliers can increase output without compromising precision or reliability.
The revised outlook confirms that lithography demand has entered another capital-intensive phase. Its duration will be determined by the conversion of AI infrastructure spending into sustained semiconductor consumption, together with the ability of manufacturers to bring new fabs and process nodes into stable production.
