Why reliable data on renewable capacity is the missing ingredient for international electricity trading

Data collection and transparency are crucial to map the true state of renewable generating capacity across power grids that is needed for international electricity markets, writes Amir Cohen of Electrical Grid Monitoring.

A global electricity ecosystem of interconnected green grids will be pivotal to the energy transition, helping balance supply and demand across borders in real time. Flattening out fluctuations in renewable generation will help smooth out price volatility and market instability.

The EU aims for at least 15% of its electricity generation capacity to be interconnected by 2030 and the UK has built an interconnector with Denmark and is exploring plans to link its grid with the United States.

Yet creating stable globally integrated electricity markets will require greater trust and transparency around available clean power capacity in all locations. Older power grids were designed for stable, centralised energy sources and the rise of intermittent distributed energy sources has reduced oversight over generating capacity.  

Power grids are also failing to harness smart data to expand their thermal capacity during cooler conditions which creates needless bottlenecks on renewable energy production.

The uncertainty surrounding clean power capacity is undermining progress towards a stable, predictable, and integrated global clean energy market.

A cloud of uncertainty over global electricity markets

Research shows that climate change could create more prolonged solar and hydropower droughts, and increases in the average duration of wind energy droughts in some regions of Europe. Combined with natural variations in renewable generation across locations, this will create growing risks of local energy price volatility and shortages. Internationally interconnected grids will be essential to safeguard against these shortages and provide equal access to renewable power supplies across all locations.

Yet this hinges on the ability to confidently estimate the amount of spare generating capacity available for export by tracking fluctuations in generation across all locations. The challenge is that operators currently have limited visibility of the secondary networks beyond their substations where distributed energy resources (DERs) proliferate.

Many network operators have practically no oversight of distribution networks to the extent of sometimes being completely blind to faults in the fuse on their feeder lines just a few metres from the transformer. Crucially, current grid monitoring systems cannot measure swells or sags in voltage to identify fluctuations in renewable generation caused by changing weather.

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This means that operators do not know the true generating capacity in all areas at any one time. Conventional grid monitoring systems also cannot detect changes in conditions such as line temperatures or windspeed that could help increase their safe current-carrying capacity.

Mapping renewable capacity across networks

Recent innovations in Artificial Intelligence, smart data and the Internet of Things are helping map the true state of renewable generating capacity across power grids.

Advanced analytics combined with 3rd generation sensors across secondary networks can now aggregate and analyse myriad electrical parameters from frequency to voltage to detect any fluctuations in renewable generation. This helps operators switch to other power sources during dips in output such as transferring from wind to solar during sunnier periods with slower wind speeds.

Smart data can even identify hidden factors behind fading power output such as slower wind speeds at certain times of day, so that operators can draw from the optimal power sources at any time or season. The resulting transparency around global renewable generating capacity would build confidence in international electricity markets.

This data could be shared across borders to help provide more predictability and stability around future renewable power supplies and prices. A true picture of supply and demand in all locations would additionally enable more cost-efficient and effective grid upgrades.

Unlocking hidden network capacity

Not only can smart grid technologies monitor generating capacity, but they can also help increase grid capacity.

Israel Electric Corporation recently piloted multi-sensing grid-monitoring systems to enable Dynamic Line Rating, where network current-carrying capacity can be safely scaled up during cooler conditions.  The sensors were strategically spread across sensitive areas such as valleys prone to higher windspeeds and monitored over 60 parameters affecting ampacity from windspeed to ambient temperature. They were able to unlock 18% more network capacity over a seven-day test period and predict the maximum current lines could safely carry several days ahead.

This data could help model how upgrades could improve capacity, for example locating new cables in areas with cooler soil temperatures or replacing conductors with new materials that carry more current. The same smart data can also identify opportunities to share loads between feeder lines to help increase their combined capacity.

Replicating these results more widely would unlock extra network capacity for renewable power, helping meet Europe’s target of increased cross-border clean electricity trading.  The cumulative capacity that could be unlocked could also help operators defer investments in new grid capacity by up to five years.

Preventing power loss and theft

A lack of visibility around other factors such as power loss or theft can also create uncertainty over the availability and cost of clean electricity for the global markets. For example, energy theft is estimated to cost £1.4 billion a year in the UK alone. Intelligent grid monitoring systems can now prevent power theft by monitoring unexpected consumption or comparing smart meter readings with energy supplied to a given branch in real-time.

The same technology can also use feeder sensors to identify unusually low power levels or leaking grid components and even find common causes of power loss across multiple sites, helping networks conserve power. This could ultimately be combined with machine learning systems to create smart ‘self-healing grids’ that can anticipate and avert power loss or other faults before they occur.

Smart grid monitoring systems can also create greater certainty over power quality as well as quantity. For example, tracking current and voltage in real-time can help spot any ‘harmonics’ or high-frequency waves disrupting the ebb and flow of current across the network. For example, identifying the site and source of harmonics could help optimise power injection from distributed energy resources to improve power quality.

Towards smart, integrated electricity markets

The creation of more interconnected clean electricity networks will be critical to compensate for regional variations in renewable generation. Yet cross-border power trading can only improve electricity price certainty and market stability if combined with more transparency around the amount of available clean power.

This comes at a time when the proliferation of decentralised, unstable power sources across largely unmonitored distribution grids is creating a cloud of uncertainty over generating capacity. Building more interconnections without solving this issue means that any unexpected dips in generation or grid capacity could create disruptive ripple effects across newly interconnected markets.

Grid interconnections must be accompanied by a shift towards smarter grids that monitor and manage everything from renewable production to grid capacity in real time. A holistic, high-resolution picture of global clean energy capacity offers a foundation for integrated electricity markets bringing affordable, secure, and clean power to all.

About the Author

Amir Cohen is the Co-Founder and CEO of Electrical Grid Monitoring (EGM), a California-based electrical equipment manufacturer.