V2G to surpass stationary storage as virtual power plant asset finds study

The virtual power plant (VPP) integrated capacity of vehicle to grid (V2G) is forecast to surpass that of energy storage assets ahead of 2040.

This is according to US-based consultancy Rethink Energy who in a report hail VPP technology as the core of future power grids.

According to the company in Virtual Power Plant (VPP) Forecast to 2040, V2G’s capacity will surpass that of stationary energy storage even when including the minority of stationary batteries that won’t be VPP-aggregated come 2040.

They add, however, that most of the time, stationary batteries will play a bigger role on the grid than V2G; EV batteries will only dominate discharging onto the grid during emergencies. Much of the motivation to sign them up to a VPP will be to determine when to cost-effectively charge them for their role as vehicles, with the V2G role being more of a strategic backup for the grid than a commonplace activity.

The report states that the most extreme case for this will be China, which will have almost half a million EVs on the road by 2040.

In contrast, China’s stationary battery fleet will not have been fully developed due to still having hundreds of gigawatts of coal and gas at that point – it will only be moderately larger than the battery fleets of the US and EU.

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VPPs core for the future power grid

According to Rethink Energy’s report, because there is little to no physical infrastructure required to extend their control and financial structures over an ever-broadening range of assets, VPPs will become a major segment of the US, EU, Chinese and Australian power grids by 2030.

The smart tech is expected to grow to incorporate a plurality of generation, storage and demand response assets in the course of the 2030s, with the pacesetters being the ‘liberalised, swiftly transitioning’ EU and Australian grids, with China and the US following behind.

The report adds that the biggest market space for VPPs will be domestic, where the majority of distributed demand and supply is – especially once EVs become prevalent.

According to the report, up to the 2040s, the primary obstacles to VPP growth are regulatory enabling, software compatibility, consumer sentiment and the extent to which VPP structures are rewarded financially.

It finds that VPPs are ultimately an auxiliary tool whose expansion will be partly a strategic decision by relevant authorities, partly a reflection of market conditions – specifically the prevalence of intermittent generation on the grid and the ever more crucial role played by batteries as a result.