TSO associations propose transmission network development scenarios for Europe

Europe’s electricity and gas transmission operator organisations ENTSO-E and ENTSOG have proposed storylines to guide the development of the next ten-year network development plan.

The two storylines proposed are for two so-called ‘deviation scenarios’, which are deviations from the ‘national trends’ scenarios that are in line with national energy and climate policies.

With the aim to reflect the latest developments in national policies that are in line with European greenhouse gas reduction ambitions as well as to acknowledge the need for high ambition in terms of energy efficiency and renewable energy deployment and explore different levels of energy and other independences for the EU, the scenarios cover a wide range of possible future evolutions of the energy infrastructure.

The two scenarios are ‘Distributed energy’ and ‘Global ambition’ reflecting respectively more European and global approaches.

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Broadly the ‘Distributed energy’ scenario pictures a pathway to achieving EU-27 carbon neutrality target by 2050 with higher European autonomy. The scenario is driven by a willingness of society to achieve high levels of independence in terms of energy supply and goods of strategic importance, e. g. industrial and agricultural produce.

It translates into both a behavioural shift and a strong decentralised drive towards decarbonisation through local initiatives by citizens, communities and businesses, supported by authorities.

Alternatively, the ‘Global ambition’ scenario pictures a pathway to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, driven by a fast and global move towards the Paris Agreement targets.

It translates into the development of a very wide range of technologies, many being centralised, and the use of global energy trade as a tool to accelerate decarbonisation.

Scenario features

Features of the two scenarios are as follows.

Distributed energy scenario:

● The transition is initiated on local/national levels and aims for EU energy independence and strategic independence through maximisation of renewable energies and smart sector integration.
● Energy demand is reduced through circularity and better energy consumption behaviour and digitalisation is driven by prosumer and variable renewable energy management.
● There is a focus on decentralised technologies, i.e. PV, batteries, etc., and smart charging and on electric heat pumps and district heating. There is a higher share of electric vehicles, with e-liquids and biofuels supplementing for heavy transport, but minimal carbon capture and storage and nuclear.

Global ambition scenario:

● The transition is initiated on a European/international level with high EU renewable energy development supplemented with low carbon energy and diversified imports.
● Energy demand is reduced with priority given to decarbonisation and diversification of energy supply and digitalisation and automation reinforce the competitiveness of EU business.
● There is a focus on large scale technologies, i.e. offshore wind, utility storage, etc., and on a wide range of heating technologies, e. g. hybrid heating technology. There is a wide range of technologies and energy carriers across mobility sectors, viz electricity, hydrogen, e-liquids and biofuels, and the integration of nuclear and carbon capture and storage.

With this storyline report along with accompanying data published as a first deliverable in the formal process for TYNDP 2024 scenario building, feedback is now sought until 8 August 2023.

Taking into account the feedback, the draft TYNDP 2024 scenario report is expected to be published for consultation in late 2023 and finalised in 2024.