Six energy technology innovations – ‘races to first’
Image: Oxford PV
The IEA in its ‘State of Energy Innovation’ report defined a set of early stage innovations that it believes are achievable in ‘races to first’ around 2030.
Drawing from input to the report these represent “outstanding scale-up challenges” towards which innovators are known to be working, in some cases by several companies with competing technology options.
They are most notably large-scale first-of-a-kind projects that must overcome a range of non-technical challenges related to finance, business models, public support, safety standards, connection to energy infrastructure, tariff design and offtake contracts – and if overcome, the benefits should be large.
To celebrate, track and encourage them, the IEA has defined them as ‘races to first’, with the promise to provide updates to progress.
In addition, when a race has clearly been won, the IEA has committed to widely communicating each success and disseminating insights into how it was achieved.
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So with this first six – and the others to follow – let’s investigate. As laid out by the IEA, each are split into three phases, with the end of the third the ‘finish line’.
First solid-state cooled building
The challenge: The use of solid refrigerant technologies as the main means of air conditioning.
The status: Phase 1.
In 2024 UK startup Barocal unveiled a prototype that matched the thermal performance of vapour compressions in small scale systems. Hong Kong University of Science & Technology announced an elastocaloric cooling cascade system with 48% higher efficiency than previous versions.
The target: Multioccupancy residential or tertiary building for each day over a period of one summer month.
First EV with a solid state battery
The challenge: Serial production of an EV in the market powered entirely by a fully solid state battery.
The status: Phase 2.
In 2024 Samsung SDI announced it had tested a cell in Korea with 500Wh/kg that can charge in 9 minutes and lasts 20 years. It plans to be selling fully solid state batteries by 2027.
The target: 10,000 or more at least 4-seater vehicles or equivalent, cumulative over 12 consecutive months.
First large scale long duration storage battery
The challenge: Multiple cycles of a system that stores electrical energy from a power grid at a single site in electrochemical form and returns it to a customer via the power grid at least one week later.
The status: Phase 1.
In 2024 Chinese flow battery manufacturer Rongke Power commissioned a 700MWh system (minimum 4-hour discharge time) in Xinjiang and is constructing a similar 800MWh facility in Dallan. Form Energy started construction of a 150MWh (minimum 100-hour discharge time) iron-air battery and is planning one at 500MWh.
In 2023 US developer ESS partnered with German energy provider LEAG to start building a 500MWh (minimum 10-hour discharge time) iron flow battery.
The target: 1GWh storage capacity battery during a period of less than 1 year and cycles involving at least 25% of the storage capacity.
First commercial 30% efficient PV
The challenge: Production of a solar module design with a nameplate conversion efficiency of 30% or more.
The status: Phase 1.
In 2024 UK company Oxford PV sold the first output from its megawatt-scale pilot manufacturing line for 24.5% efficient modules in Germany.
The target: 100MW or more cumulative over 12 consecutive months.
First carbon free flight
The challenge: A safe continuous flight of 1,000km or more with no propulsion from a carbon containing fuel.
The status: Phase 1.
In 2024 US company Joby Aviation completed a manned 840km test flight of a hydrogen powered 4-passenger plane in the US.
The target: Aircraft capable of carrying 20 passengers or equivalent.
First freight ship powered by carbon-free fuel
The challenge: A one-way ocean crossing of over 6,000km relying on a fuel that does not contain any carbon for at least 75% of fuel needs.
The status: Phase 2.
In 2005 Mitsui E&S entered the test phase for a 60-bore dual fuel ammonia engine to be installed aboard a 200,000t bulk carrier with a view to commercialising 70- and 80-bore versions by 2028.
In 2024 Swiss company WinGD began testing a 72-bore single cylinder ammonia engine and has taken orders for a series of 210,000t bulk carriers.
The target: A vessel with a 72-bore or larger engine capable of carrying over 100,000t.
