New York is making ‘historic’ grid investments. Is it enough?

Electricity demand in New York is projected to increase 50%-90% over the next 20 years, and although “historic” levels of investments in the transmission system have been made, even more will be needed to meet public policy mandates, according to a recent study from the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO).

The study, 2023-2042 System & Resource Outlook, examined possible resource mixes to meet New York’s public policy mandates; identified New York regions where generators may not perform at their full capacity; quantified the extent to which transmission constraints limit delivery of renewable energy to consumers; and highlights potential opportunities for transmission investment that may provide economic, policy, or operational benefits.

Transmission

“Historic” levels of investment in the transmission system are happening, NYISO said, but more are needed. NYISO pointed to two recently completed transmission projects which it selected to address the AC Transmission Public Policy Transmission Needs (i.e., Segment A and Segment B), which have “significantly” increased the ability of the New York grid to deliver power.

In June 2023, the NYISO Board of Directors selected another transmission project meant to address the Long Island Offshore Wind Export Public Policy Transmission Need identified by the New York Public Service Commission (NYPSC). This project will provide transmission capacity to deliver at least 3,000 MW from offshore wind projects.

While these projects represent a step in the right direction, NYISO argues that there are additional opportunities to expand the transmission system.

Additional dynamic reactive power support “must” be added to the grid in upstate New York to alleviate congestion and fully utilize the transmission capability of the Central East interface, NYISO said. Additionally, opportunities for further transmission investment in Western and Northern New York should be monitored as resources are developed in those regions, it said. However, NYSIO warned that planning energy exchanges with neighboring systems is becoming more complex, and will be “increasingly so” in the future as each system transitions to more decarbonized systems.

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Demand

Electric energy consumption is projected to increase in New York by 50% to 90% and become a winter-peaking system over the next 20 years, NYISO said. This is mostly driven by the electrification of essential energy-consuming systems, NYISO said, such as building heating and electric vehicle charging.

The timing of the switch to a winter-peaking system is mainly influenced by the timing and composition of heating electrification, NYISO said. The changing demand patterns, as well as the scale of demand increase, will impact the future generation capacity mix and resulting power flows across the system.

Additionally, NYISO projects that siting large loads in electrical proximity to renewable energy sources, or siting resources near large loads, may benefit both the loads and the resources, especially if located upstream of known constraints. “Numerous” new large loads are expected to interconnect into New York, NYISO said, with most consisting of manufacturing facilities and data centers, as well as potential hydrogen production operations.

Loads that are close to their generation reduce the usage of the transmission network and can more readily absorb excess energy, NYISO said. Additionally, renewable resources located close to large loads can benefit from higher utilization rates.

Resources

NYISO estimates that the generation capacity required to achieve CLCPA energy mandates will be about three times the capacity of the current New York generation fleet, while the electric energy consumption is expected to increase by roughly 50% – 90%. Therefore, it argues that dispatchable emission-free resources must be developed to provide the capacity, energy, and other essential grid services required to achieve the policy mandate for a zero-emissions grid by 2040.

As New York’s resource mix shifts to emission-free sources, operating reserves, ramping, regulation, voltage support, and black start services must still be available and reliable, NYISO said. Dispatchable emissions-free resources (DEFRs) deployed across the state could help, but they need to be developed first. Examples of potential DEFR technologies include long-duration batteries, small modular nuclear reactors, hydrogen-powered generators, and fuel cells. The Outlook projects that at least 20GW of DEFR capacity would be needed by 2040 to replace the current 25.3GW of fossil fuel generation to support policy mandates.

However, DEFR technologies are not commercially viable at the necessary scale, NYISO admits. And even if they were, there remains “significant” work in implementation and logistics that must be overcome to economically justify transitioning the dispatchable fleet to a combination of technologies in the next 15 years, it said. The research, development and construction lead times could extend beyond the policy mandate timeline, NYISO said, which would require other existing generation technologies to remain in operation.

Originally published on Power Grid International by Sean Wolfe.