Joint European electricity-gas network development scenarios released

ENTSO-E and ENTSOG have released draft joint scenarios that are intended as the basis for the next electricity and gas ten-year network development plans (TYNDPs).

The joint scenarios, encompassing electricity, natural gas, hydrogen and methane, build on earlier scenarios with the aim to provide a quantitative basis for cost-benefit analyses of infrastructure projects and for analysis of the future needs for system reinforcement and infrastructure gaps.

Their basis is the ‘National Trends+ scenario’, which aligns with the region’s energy and climate policies, including a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions of at least 55% in 2030 compared to the 1990 level and net zero in 2050 and a renewable energy share reaching up to 45.4% in 2030.

In essence this NT+ scenario represents an aggregation of national pathways to reach EU targets.

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The two additional ‘deviation’ scenarios are designed to reflect uncertainties post 2030 – the ‘Distributed energy’ scenario representing higher European autonomy with a renewable and decentralised focus, and the ‘Global ambition’ scenario with centralised low carbon and renewable energy options.

Piotr Kuś, ENTSOG general director, states that the joint scenarios evaluate the interactions between the gas, hydrogen and electricity systems and describes them as “… vital to delivering the best assessment of the infrastructure from an integrated system perspective.”

“All decarbonisation and renewable technologies are needed to support long term European climate and energy targets to reach net zero in 2050,” commented Gerald Kaendler, chair of ENTSO-E’s System Development Committee.

“Substantial investments are needed in all renewable energy sources and in transmission infrastructure. The timely implementation of transmission projects, needed to connect high renewable energy areas to demand centres, is a key prerequisite to meet European climate targets while ensuring security and sustainability.”

Energy demand

In the ‘Global ambition’ and ‘Distributed energy’ scenarios, the overall final energy demand of the EU significantly decreases. This reduction is attributed to a combination of energy efficiency measures, such as building renovations and the adoption of more efficient technologies, coupled with the enhanced integration of the energy system.

Direct electricity demand increases by over 50% in the ‘Distributed Energy’ scenario and over 35% in the Global Ambition scenario by 2050, compared to the reference year. This increase is driven by Europe’s shift away from fossil fuel use, particularly for transportation.

The importance of gas as energy carriers is foreseen in all scenarios, where methane remains predominant in 2030 and hydrogen becomes more prominent in the long-term.

Up to 2030, only a slight decrease in methane demand is anticipated, followed by a more pronounced decline thereafter.

By 2050, clean hydrogen is projected to reach levels comparable to current methane usage. Its role will continue to expand across various sectors, playing an increasingly vital role.

Scenario findings

Among other findings from the scenarios is that sector integration provides efficient decarbonisation solutions that enable the European production of electricity and gas to be carbon neutral before 2050.

The integration of electricity, methane and hydrogen infrastructures provides a wide range of opportunities to solve short-term and seasonal flexibility needs in a net zero energy system:

Both methane and hydrogen also serve as versatile energy carriers across multiple sectors, offering substantial potential to contribute to Europe’s decarbonisation efforts.

With the development of renewable hydrogen, biomethane and decarbonisation technologies, the EU can decarbonise nearly 80% of its gas production by 2030 in the NT+ scenario and decarbonise completely until 2050.

Furthermore, natural gas import levels are reduced to zero by 2050, contributing to the independence of the EU from fossil fuel imports.

With this, hydrogen is considered the game changer, contributing to both the decarbonisation of the gas system and unlocking the full potential of renewable electricity sources.

Finally, innovation is key to achieve a sustainable energy future.

While the scenarios depict several ways in which the European energy system may evolve with the aim of reaching climate neutrality, there are additional factors and challenges that go beyond what is needed for energy infrastructure planning such as market design and operational procedures.

Further attention also is needed to understand the impact of factors such as recycling and repurposing, enabling stable supply chains, the use of land space and scarce resources, training of workforce, financing, and citizen engagement.

The innovation needed goes beyond technical know-how to ensure the energy system is made sustainable in time for future generations, the report concludes.