Grid infrastructure must grow rapidly for net zero – IEA

The growth in grid infrastructure to transport and store electricity will place “considerable demands” on supply chains, according to the IEA’s Energy Technology Perspectives 2023.

The new report, which addresses supply chains and their primarily material and mineral dependences as a key element in delivering a net zero world, points to the rapid growth in electricity use in the net zero scenario as driving up demand for all types of electrical supply equipment.

For example, electricity grids undergo rapid expansion in this scenario. By 2030, the global length of transmission lines increases by almost 2.5 million km and distribution networks by more than 16 million km, compared with 1 million km and 12 million km respectively from 2013 to 2021.

By 2050 the increase in the global length of transmission lines exceeds 9.5 million km and that of distribution lines 115 million km.

Have you read?
Energy crisis an opportunity to focus on markets and technologies – GridBeyond
Diversified supply chains are top priority as we enter a clean energy economy

Moreover in practice, the gross additions are even greater, totalling more than 170 million km as many of the existing lines, particularly in advanced economies, will need to be replaced by 2050.

Another example is global transformer demands, with additions doubling from an average of 2.4GW/year over 2012 to 2021 to 4.9GW/year in 2022 to 2030.

Stationary battery storage also grows rapidly, with capacity rising from 108GWh today to 3,100GWh by 2030 mainly owing to the increasing need for system flexibility.

Dwarfing this is Electric Vehicle (EV) batteries, which register global capacity of 5.5TWh in 2030.

And all of these grid developments need investments of $520 billion (in real 2021 US$) during 2022 to 2030 – almost double the $308 billion spent in 2021 – while $1,034 billion per year is required from 2031 to 2050.

With this, electricity grids represent 30% of power sector investments by 2030 and 45% by 2050.

Material needs

Unsurprisingly, demand for materials to make all this equipment for electricity grids, especially copper and aluminium, soars.

For example, the report states that the use of copper for transmission lines, distribution grids and transformers increases from an average of 5Mt/year in 2012 to 2021 to 6Mt/year over 2022 to 2030, levelling off at 12Mt/year in 2041 to 2050.

Annual aluminium demand grows from 12Mt/year to 16Mt/year and 26Mt/year over the same periods.

The copper used for grids and transformers in 2022-2030 corresponds to almost 20% of global copper production in 2021, while the share for aluminium is almost 25%.

There are several suppliers of HV AC and DC and overhead lines internationally, with many having plants located close to demand centres.

Similarly, there is a large number of manufacturers of transformers, particularly the medium voltage and distribution transformers. However, a key material is grain oriented electrical steel, with five countries – China, Japan, Korea, Russia and United States – today accounting for the majority of global production.

Demand for GOES alone doubles to 6Mt per year over the decade to 2030 in the net zero scenario.

Technology lead times

Another issue the report highlights is the long lead times for projects.

For example, average lead times for new overhead transmission lines in Europe and the US today are around ten years, of which seven are required for planning and permitting and around three for construction.

For the large HVAC or HVDC cables themselves the procurement lead times are around two to four years, due to the technicalities of the manufacturing processes.

Other factors that impact a project deployment include the project economics and socio-political support.

Reducing project lead times will be critical to speeding up deployment, the report states.