EV batteries can provide 114TWh capacity by 2030 finds EY and Eurelectric

According to Europe’s electricity sector association, the capacity offered by electric vehicle batteries could rise to as high as 114TWh by 2030, should they be used as flexibility assets to avoid renewable energy curtailment.

According to a Eurelectric study, Plugging into potential: unleashing the flexibility of EVs, the 114TWh figure comes from the capability of EVs to avoid curtailment of renewables, an application of EVs that has not yet been tapped into for its full potential.

It is the equivalent of 4% of Europe’s annual power supply by 2030 and enough to power 30 million homes annually.

This figure is also set to increase by 2040, based on EY modelling in the study, where through vehicle to grid (V2G), more than 10% of Europe’s overall power needs could be stored, reinjecting into the power system when needed.

The potential of smart charging

Eurelectric’s figures come as flexibility needs are set to double over the next half-decade, brought on by increasing renewable penetration into the energy system and the electrification of end-use sectors.

Smart charging specifically, says the report, could deliver one of the largest, most affordable, scalable and flexible solutions to balance the network at the local level and resolve bottlenecks.

Citing a study in Applied Energy, Eurelectric says that up to 6% can be shaved off peak load where proper energy management systems are combined with V2G technology.

Moreover, DSOs could benefit from a projected €4 billion ($4.3 billion) in savings annually due to these mechanisms, as higher flexibility partially reduces the need for infrastructure expansion.

Citing its 2024 Grids for Speed study, Eurelectric adds that flexibility could be considered an inherent part of the solution to reduce operators’ anticipated annual €67 billion ($71.7 billion) investment bill to €55 billion ($58.9 billion).

Barriers to success

Despite the significant potential offered by these systems, barriers yet remain.

According to the study, V2G will only provide significant day-to-day benefits for grid operators if they can implement smart control and actively control and optimise electricity consumption and charging to make best use of grid integration.

Consumers, it adds, lack clear economic incentives to tap these services. Unlocking this potential requires clear price signals, enhanced access to flexibility markets, and interoperable data across the e-mobility ecosystem.

Additionally, although EV sales have passed the early adopters stage, high upfront costs remain a barrier and mainstream consumers need to be convinced of the value. On costs, Eurelectric adds that, by providing flexibility, consumers could benefit from much lower running costs, bringing the total cost of EV ownership below that of conventional cars.

Charging availability is another source of concern. Public chargers grew by 30% in 2024, reaching more than 820,000 units but must grow even faster to get to the Commission’s 3.5 million target by 2030. This means installing 8,600 chargers per week.

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Monetising flexibility

Key to bringing about the benefits of smart and V2G charging, says the study, will be its monetisation.

According to the study, flexibility markets and better pricing must reward providers and support trade in the commodity.

But first, several mechanisms need to be set in place:

• Smart-charging data interoperability and information sharing between the vehicle, DSO and CPO (charge point operator) or aggregator, and standardised communication protocols to link all participants within the ecosystem;

• Appropriate investment and regulation, on both the demand and supply sides, to effectively manage flexibility output from weather-dependent resources, such as wind and solar;

• Scaled flexibility solutions that adjust electricity supply or demand in response to changing conditions;

• Price signals to prompt EV drivers to charge or discharge, relieving congestion on local networks;

• The establishment of effective local flexibility markets for DSOs to procure flexibility to avoid network congestion and improve network asset utilisation;

• The removal of regulatory hurdles, such as double taxation, for mobile and stationary storage;

• The implementation of pending technical standards, such as ISO 15118-20, in vehicles and charging infrastructure, and increased availability of interoperable vehicles and charging infrastructure for bidirectional charging;

• Market rules for market participation, enabling DSOs to compensate users for helping to balance the grid with V2G

‘Gotta be the money’

Speaking in advance of the report’s launch, Serge Colle, EY Global Power & Utilities Leader, said that although there are a range of important factors to consider for tapping EV’s flexibility potential, the issue boils down to customer buy-in.

“There’s all of these elements, from infrastructure to signals to data interoperability. But all of that ultimately translates back to the customer who trusts that this all has no impact on their convenience, no impact on their equipment… and that they can make money, by keeping the car connected to the grid.”

This, says Colle, will be critical: the business proposition to incentivise V2G uptake. “Gotta be the money – which is very appealing.”

Colle explained how EY looked across three vehicle types in six markets: compact, family and large vehicles in the UK, Germany, France, Netherlands, Sweden and Spain.

“They obviously have differences between markets in terms of cost of the car and the fuel prices and so on. But there is a lot of money to be made,” he said.

“If we look at the different numbers across the different markets, across the three vehicle categories, it is very substantial money.”

Indeed, according to Eurelectric’s study, an EV owner in Europe, by using both smart charging and bidirectional charging, could save between €450 ($478) to €2,900 ($3,080) every year.

This can be achieved by three mechanisms, it says, including: off peak charging, shifting charging from expensive peak hours to low-price periods; time of use (ToU) charging, where savings are amplified under a cost-reflective ToU tariff scenario; V2G or vehicle to home charging, selling back to the grid while benefitting from a ToU tariff.

Colle said: “We took average annual electricity prices as a basis to calculate the value of charging when it’s most convenient for the grids, for the load, as well as potentially charging back. But flexibility comes at a much higher price than the average electricity price. So that’s an upside.

“At the same time, specifically over here in our [Europe’s] summer, it can be very sunny… so customers can charge very often for free. That’s not just on occasion – that happens a lot. And as we move to more intermittency, it will happen increasingly.

“The money is going to be the number one incentive. This has to be told to customers, and they need to be incentivised to go after that number, and they will – it’s what we see in every single market.”