Europe’s TSOs propose network developments to 2040 and beyond to deliver net zero
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The need for more network infrastructure with the associated investment underpins ENTSO-E’s analysis for its next ten year network development plan (TYNDP).
The biennially updated 2024 plan, which is now out for consultation, finds that while the existing planned projects are key for the energy transition, particularly towards 2030, they are insufficient to deliver on climate ambitions while at the same time containing energy costs.
By 2030 with the generation mix and electricity grid expected, the EU would meet its energy transition targets for CO2 and renewables.
However, with further investment of €5 billion ($5.2 billion) in an additional 88GW of cross-border capacity above the current 161GW expectation and 56GW of storage capacity, the cost of Europe’s power system would be minimised with the system costs reduced by €8 billion.
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By 2040, there is the need for 108GW of additional cross-border capacity, including 20GW of offshore hybrid corridors, and 227GW of storage capacity to minimise total system costs.
At that time each euro invested in the electricity grid – €6 billion per year – translates into over €2 saved in system costs, the study finds. That infrastructure would reduce renewables curtailment by 114TWh/year, CO2 emissions by 18Mt and generation of electricity by gas power plants by 48TWh.
The study notes that reaching this level of cross-border exchanges also will create new needs for the reinforcement of the internal national networks in Europe.
It also adds that the investment creates jobs and benefits and by 2040 the TYNDP 2024 project portfolio, worth €288 billion ($299 billion) in the EU, would be expected to generate 4.1 million jobs, mobilise €603 billion ($626 billion) in production and increase the EU’s GDP by €247 billion ($256 billion).
Public administration revenues through taxes could reach €111 billion ($115 billion), benefiting European society.
However, it cautions that failing to make the investment would result in the region’s overall electricity bill increasing by an extra €13 billion ($13.5 billion) per year.
In a background video Rodrigo Barbosa, Long-Term Planning Manager at ENTSO-E, says it is now the role of the market to find the most efficient solutions using European ingenuity.
“Currently complex permitting processes result in project delays and cancellations, holding back the necessary investment and change. It is possible to make these processes much simpler without sacrificing an inch of environmental or social ambition.”
The draft plan also notes that measures to improve energy efficiency should be a first step and that there is a need for resilient and efficient supply chains to meet the growing demand for grid technologies.
ENTSO-E 2050 network infrastructure vision
In a first for the plan, ENTSO-E introduces a vision and analysis of system needs for 2050, emphasising the importance of investing in network and storage infrastructure to achieve a CO2-neutral energy system.
With investment of €13 billion ($13.5 billion) per year, an additional 224GW of cross-border grid capacity and 540GW of storage capacity are found to be economically efficient, saving €23 billion ($24 billion) annually in system costs.
The total investment in electricity infrastructure in 2050, also considering offshore hybrid and radial connection infrastructure, amounts to €863 billion ($895 billion) over 25 years.
The TYNDP 2024 is open for public consultation until 14 March 2025.
Originally published on Enlit.World.
