Europe’s transmission grids put energy transition at risk – Ember

A new study from UK energy think tank Ember has found that in several countries the transmission grid plans are out of step with national plans.

With this comes the risk that grid investments may be insufficient to deliver on the 2030 energy security and climate targets and need to be urgently addressed given the longer timescales of grid developments compared with clean technologies.

The analysis was based on the national grid development plans of 35 countries, including the EU-27, Norway, Switzerland, the UK and the Western Balkans.

Among the findings is that the grid plans of seven countries – Bulgaria, Greece, Ireland, Lithuania, Norway, Portugal, Romania – are based on lower wind and solar deployments than national targets, while those of a further six countries – Czechia, Denmark, France, Hungary, Luxembourg, Poland – are based on either lower wind or solar.

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Of these solar tends to be more affected, with its capacity underestimated by a total of 60GW across the 11 identified countries and wind by 27GW.

Conversely, in four countries – Croatia, Denmark, Finland, and the Netherlands – the plans are based on scenarios with higher capacities for wind and solar, ranging from 50% higher for Denmark to 200% higher for Finland and totalling 81GW.

Another finding is that in 19 out of 23 national grid plans examined, the deployment of solar expected under SolarPower Europe’s business-as-usual scenario is undershot by a total of 205GW by 2030, while in ten out of 31 plans wind is underestimated by a total of 17GW.

These discrepancies imply grid congestion may worsen in the short-term as grids are ill-equipped to manage the rapidly growing renewable fleet, the report states.

A third key finding is that spending on grids today in EU member states reaches approximately €63 billion ($68 billion), with an average of €28 billion per year earmarked for transmission grids and €35 billion invested in distribution grids in 2022.

This spending surpasses the European Commission’s REPowerEU estimate for annual grid investment of €58.4 billion until 2030 by at least €5 billion.

Furthermore, investment in national transmission systems will likely need to be augmented to make them ‘fit for purpose’ in those countries where the grid plans lag behind existing energy policy.

Commenting on the findings, Elisabeth Cremona, Energy & Climate Data Analyst at Ember, says there is no transition without transmission.

“We can’t afford to overlook grids. They risk holding Europe’s supercharged energy transition back if plans aren’t updated. Making sure solar and wind can actually connect to the system is as critical as the panels and turbines themselves.”

Expanding transmission grids capacity

Among other findings of the analysis is that European countries are planning to add over 25,000km of internal transmission lines between now and 2026. This corresponds to an increase of over 5% and would bring the total length to approximately 523,000km by the end of 2026.

Moreover, that accelerating network expansion is feasible is illustrated in the plans of ten TSOs. In particular, Energinet plans to expand its 7,440km grid by 3,300km by 2026, corresponding to an annual growth of 7.6% – over double the average growth since 2015.

Non-wires solutions – also known as ‘grid enhancing technologies’ in the US – in particular dynamic line rating and local flexibility also are being increasingly adopted by TSOs to increase the grid capacity as an alternative to new or upgraded infrastructure.

A further finding is the emergence of hydrogen in grid planning and the need for integrating both the demand and supply sides and coordination with the gas TSOs.

For example, strategic deployment of electrolyser plants could reduce bottlenecks in the electricity transmission grid and lower the need for grid expansion but is contingent on proximity to the existing natural gas network or planned hydrogen network.

Preparing the grid

To prepare the grid for the clean energy transition the report recommends political prioritisation of the grids, revision of regulatory frameworks to allow timely planning and investment and increased oversight and scrutiny of network plans along with enhanced reporting by TSOs on for example grid connection queues, available grid capacity and planned investments.

Placing clean power at the core of grid planning also would enable anticipatory investments.