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Limited electricity import options across over half of the European continent are increasing blackout risks, says Ember in a research report.
Ember’s report, New lines of defence: how interconnectors keep the lights on, highlights the vital role of interconnectors in preventing outages and aiding recovery.
According to the company in a release, 55% of Europe’s power system has suboptimal electricity import options, with Spain, Ireland and Finland especially exposed to grid incidents due to minimal cross-border infrastructure.
The company explains in a release how interconnectors support with system resilience and recovery, listing Poland as an example. In 2021 a substation error in the country caused a major frequency drop that was quickly stabilised with interconnector support. In 2020, Poland averted a record generation loss from causing blackouts, largely through emergency imports. Interconnectors also helped restart the Iberian grid in April 2025 and supported France’s power supply in 2022.
According to the company in a release, such cross-border connections have prevented or managed three major blackouts within the EU in the past five years and kept grids in Ukraine and Moldova alive during Russia’s aggression. However, they add that, due to the importance of this infrastructure for security, it has also become a target for sabotage.
The company lists several events as examples. Since 2022, they say, nine incidents of damage to energy and communications links have been recorded in the Baltic Sea alone. Additionally, in April 2025, Russian hackers hit a Norwegian hydropower plant, while September 2025 saw further incidents – including a gas train explosion near Vilnius, an arson-caused blackout in Berlin and Israeli strikes in Qatar, a key European gas supplier.
Commenting in a release was Pawel Czyzak, Europe programme director at Ember: “Without immediate action to expand and protect interconnectors, blackout risks will grow, particularly in countries with limited supply diversity.
“This needs to be treated not as an energy priority, but as a vital element of protecting European society against attacks. In times of instability, European countries should actively develop cross-border connections to safeguard the security of millions of Europeans.”
Said contributing author Isabelle Dupraz, deputy director, European Initiative for Energy Security: “Grid security is rudimentary to reducing Europe’s dependence on adversarial actors who have long used energy as a tool of economic coercion, dictating growth and productivity, and undermining stability across the continent.
“The much-needed push for low-carbon, domestic energy production must be matched by investment in grid modernisation to sustain large-scale electrification, strengthen Europe’s strategic autonomy, and power its modern economy.”
Boosting and securing interconnector capacity
According to Ember’s report, to continue providing stability against grid failures or geopolitical threats, two sets of actions need to be taken: the expansion of interconnector capacity and better security of existing infrastructure.
Ember cites the upcoming European Grid Package as a timely opportunity to strengthen political commitment around both areas.
On capacity expansion, European interconnection capacity is expected to almost double between 2024 and 2040, or even triple if all currently planned projects were delivered on time. Priority, says the report, should be given to areas with limited connectivity and high exposure to potential disruption – such as the Iberian Peninsula, Eastern Europe and Finland.
However, Ember warns that strategic investments will only happen with strong political commitment and cross-border collaboration.
On securing existing infrastructure, the report cites the European Commission’s recently proposed Action Plan on Cable Security and a Hybrid Toolbox addressing hybrid warfare.
The company says that reactive measures must be coupled with coordinated planning and permitting to accelerate grid investments – as more interconnections, lines and substations make the system more resilient if one of the elements is attacked.
In the case of cross-border and offshore projects, this requires more active steering by the European Commission, facilitating regional collaboration and mediating between governments and financing institutions such as EIB and EBRD.
Additionally, says Ember, grid enhancing technologies, including digital solutions, should be incentivised in EU funding, enhancing monitoring, maintenance and recovery of grid assets. Supply chain security is essential as well, with a priority for “made in Europe” components and digital systems.
Finally, in both grid expansion and protection, collaboration and coordination is critical, says Ember’s report, given the group of stakeholders ranges from grid operators, through the EU, governments and financial institutions, to NATO and different branches of the military.
