EU increases 2030 solar goals by 87% but grid planning trails

Solar energy targets in Europe have increased by an average of 87%, however, grid and flexibility planning trail far behind renewable goals, putting the energy transition at risk.

That is the finding of the latest analysis by Solar Power Europe, the association representing the entire European value chain.

EU member states have submitted their draft updated National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs), and according to Solar Power Europe, the updated plans represent an 87% increase in solar ambition compared to the 2019 NECPs.

Lithuania and Ireland stand out by multiplying their respective targets by more than 5 and 10 respectively. Poland multiplied its target by 3, while Finland, Portugal, Slovenia, and Sweden more than doubled their previous targets, with Spain increasing its target by 95%.

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Despite the boost in ambition, the NECPs do not reflect the investments needed for grid deployment, flexibility, and digitalisation. While most NECPs at least partially mention flexibility, only four provide a real target for demand-side flexibility via smart-meter roll-out or demand-side response.

Jonathan Bonadio, senior policy advisor at SolarPower Europe, commented in a statement: “Europe risks putting the cart before the horse. Energy system planning needs to be in sync with energy generation targets. Without proper energy system planning, solar projects will be held up, solar energy will be wasted, and the business case of solar will be undermined.”

This demand-side gap risks discouraging citizens’ adaptation to the new energy reality, states Solar Power Europe in a press release. Europeans should be supported to flex their energy use sensibly and consume electricity when it is abundant – like charging e-vehicles in the middle of the day. Though overlooked in NECPs, demand-side tools should be used to ease pressure on the grid and support the system to add more renewables. Demand-side flexibility means less investment is needed for slow-to-build grid infrastructure.

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When it comes to energy storage, nine countries have defined dedicated targets in terms of MW, MWh or euros. Among these nine countries, four have gone further with dedicated targets for batteries, small-scale storage or storage at household level.

Most EU countries, however, fail to plan to empower the use of renewables 24/7, day or night.

Though a lack of storage infrastructure, or demand-side response, will undoubtedly and unnecessarily put pressure on the electricity grid, only two EU countries have set a target or an investment plan for their distribution electricity grid – France and Malta.

While 20 countries have at least partially acknowledged the investment needs at transmission level, only France and Malta have set out plans to invest in the distribution grid.

France intends to increase the investment in its distribution grid by 20% by 2032, while Malta mentions a series of investment in equipment for the upgrade of the grid.

Based on current ambition, the EU would see 626GW total ambition by 2030, compared to the EU Solar Strategy target of 750GW and the industry potential of 902GW.

With the draft NECPs submitted to the European Commission, Member States now have until June 30th to submit any updates before their plans are considered final.

Originally published on Power Engineering International.