ASEAN transmission grid needs to double expansion plans finds Ember

Plans for transmission grid expansion in the ASEAN region currently cover 45% of the scale needed to facilitate the energy transition, finds Ember analysis.

The think tank, in their new report, Wired for profit: Grid is the key to unlock ASEAN energy investment, finds a significant gap in transmission grid planning for the region to meet net zero targets.

According to their research, between 2023 to 2030, Indonesia, Viet Nam, the Philippines and Thailand plan to add 45,076km of transmission lines, accounting for roughly 45% of the scale envisaged in the IEA’s grid Announced Pledges Scenario. This indicates that roughly double the transmission expansion to 2030 required to deliver national clean energy and climate targets still needs to be planned.

According to Ember, there is a lack of available data on transmission expansion plans across several ASEAN countries, which poses a challenge in assessing regional plans against the IEA pathway.

For instance, while Indonesia, Viet Nam, the Philippines and Thailand account for the vast majority of existing grid infrastructure in the region, there is limited data for other ASEAN countries.

This, says the report, indicates that the majority—approximately over half—of the required transmission expansion needs to be planned by countries to align with the regional pathway.

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Modern and flexible grids will be essential

According to the report, rising solar and wind generation, as well energy demand from data centres and transport electrification is expected to take place in the region in the near future. This calls for a greater action on grids and interconnections to accelerate renewables build and bring various economic benefits such as jobs.

By 2030, Ember says solar and wind generation are projected to account for around 23–25% of the power mix, up from just 4% today. To realise this transition, grid infrastructure must evolve – becoming more modern, flexible and regionally integrated.

This is where further grid planning will be crucial, to achieve stronger grids through modernisation, expansion, adoption of flexibility options, regional integration, market reforms, and mobilisation of finance.

Although some ASEAN countries have started to embed these priorities in their respective national energy policies, Ember says that a stronger push for action from policymakers could help in securing finance and building investor confidence in grid infrastructure.

To date, they add, only Cambodia, Malaysia and Singapore have signed the Global Energy Storage and Grids Pledge, which aims to deploy 1,500GW of energy storage and 25 million kilometres of grid infrastructure globally by 2030.

Commenting in a release was Dr Assaad Razzouk, ‍Gurīn Energy: “Energy security is national security.

“The ASEAN region is therefore understandably accelerating its build-out of competitively priced and zero-emissions renewable energy this decade. Ember’s report is particularly welcome to highlight the role of a flexible, modern grid in carrying green electrons from regions with abundant supply of land, water, solar and wind, to major demand centres and the many industrial and data centre zones in the region.”

Said Dr Dinita Setyawati, senior energy analyst, Ember: “The role of the grid is more than just moving electricity.

“In ASEAN, a stronger and interconnected grid can create a robust renewable energy market, connecting countries, uplifting communities, and bringing clean energy to the darkest corners. Grid upgrade, coupled with clean flexibility tools can better prepare ASEAN for a renewables-based future.”

Energy mix potential

According to the report, the planned ASEAN grid routes are home to 30GW of solar and wind potential.

As much as 24GW of solar and 5.6GW of wind potential are located in Riau islands and Sumatra (Indonesia), Sarawak (Malaysia), Cambodia and Brunei, locations of some existing and planned new interconnection projects.

The electricity generated from these potential projects could be shared with demand centres, providing a larger range of generation capacity from clean energy to meet future demand.

In the report, Ember calls on collaboration to fast-track interconnection projects, create a renewable energy market, and leverage the diverse energy potential of ASEAN countries.

The company cites examples from Europe and the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP), which show that interconnection projects managed by a regional coordinating association, such as ENTSO-E for Europe or the SAPP Coordination Centre for Southern African, can accommodate sharing of resources and improve social welfare

Expediting the pace of connectivity could increase GDP across ASEAN by 0.8% to 4.6% and unlock a bigger market.

To date, the development of multilateral power trade in ASEAN has been limited to several projects: the Lao PDR – Thailand – Malaysia – Singapore Power Integration Project (LTMS-PIP), and early initiation of Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines Power Integration Project (BIMP-PIP). To encourage further collaborations, proposed reforms include better coordinated planning for regional power trade arrangements.

Additionally, says the report, approximately 182,000 new jobs could be created in the region from new solar and wind projects.