Nesta says low-carbon heating is moving quickly into the commercial mainstream for UK installers, with new polling showing one in four heat pump installers and heating engineers expect between a quarter and a half of their income to come from low-carbon heating by this winter. The survey of 200 installers, carried out by Censuswide in March, also found that 70% expect heat pumps alone to account for between 10% and 50% of revenue over the same period.
That shift comes as the wider market keeps expanding. Heat Pump Association figures show UK heat pump sales reached a record 125,037 units in 2025, up 27% year on year, while government policy now points to more than 450,000 annual installations by 2030. Against that backdrop, Nesta’s data suggests the constraint is becoming less about whether demand exists and more about whether enough installers feel ready to deliver systems confidently and at volume.
The survey points to a practical gap rather than a theoretical one. Six in ten respondents said hands-on experience with equipment was the most effective way to learn before installation, whether through trying the kit themselves, testing it with wholesalers, or seeing it working in a customer’s home. Nesta also points to earlier government survey work showing that only 27% of newly trained heat pump installers had completed an installation within a year of training, underlining how formal instruction on its own does not always convert into field activity.
Nesta is trying to close that gap through Start at Home, which helps heating engineers install a government-funded heat pump in their own property and backs suppliers with short-term funding support while public grant reimbursement is processed. More than 1,000 engineers have already registered interest since the initiative launched in autumn 2025. Engineers looking to take part can register through Start at Home. The underlying point is increasingly difficult to miss: for many installers, heat pumps are no longer a future diversification play, but a growing line of current revenue.
