Understanding the scope of a problem is essential before addressing it. The United Nations developed the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) System to monitor and classify the severity of food insecurity, which is vital for directing aid effectively. However, a recent study published in Nature Food reveals that global assessments routinely underestimate hunger, challenging the assumption that these metrics overstate the need.
“This matters because these metrics are used to trigger funding for emergency relief,” stated Kathy Baylis, a co-author and professor at UC Santa Barbara. The study indicates that while the IPC system is crucial for international humanitarian responses, it may not accurately reflect the number of people in dire need. In 2023, around 765 million people globally lacked sufficient food, with nearly a third experiencing acute food insecurity.
The IPC, established in 2004, is a consortium of 21 partner organisations and is responsible for allocating over $6 billion in humanitarian aid annually. It evaluates food security in approximately 30 vulnerable countries, using diverse data inputs such as food prices, weather patterns, and dietary quality. Classifications range from phase 1 (none/minimal) to phase 5 (catastrophe/famine), with phase 3 marking a crisis threshold where 20% of the population is hungry.
Evaluating the accuracy of these assessments poses a technical challenge. If the assessments are effective, the humanitarian community can avert crises. “In a sense, if they’re correct and effective, they’re always wrong,” remarked Hope Michelson, the lead author and professor at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
Michelson, Baylis, and their team, including Erin Lentz from the University of Texas at Austin, conducted extensive research, analysing nearly 10,000 assessments covering 917 million individuals across 33 countries between 2017 and 2023. Their findings revealed a tendency for IPC classifications to fall just below the phase 3 threshold, indicating a conservative bias in the face of conflicting data.
The researchers identified 293.1 million people in phase 3 or higher, compared to the IPC’s 226.9 million, suggesting that 66.2 million individuals might be uncounted. “The food security indicators available to IPC teams don’t always agree,” Michelson noted, highlighting a conservative approach when data are contradictory.
Despite its shortcomings, the IPC system remains a critical tool for gauging global food insecurity. Enhancing data collection and decision-making processes could improve system confidence, and incorporating machine learning might refine data collection and modeling.
The study underscores the significant shortfalls in aid for hunger and famine. “Our work shows that the need is even greater than we thought,” Baylis emphasised. Michelson added, “Understanding that current figures likely underestimate the global food-insecure population highlights the need for more resources to combat hunger worldwide.”
