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A project run by UK Power Networks will use machine learning and AI to estimate rooftop solar capacity not currently measured by grid operators.
The DSO’s ‘AI for Visibility and Forecasting of Renewable Generation’ project, developed in partnership with Open Climate Fix (OCF), looks to tackle the challenge of making rooftop solar more visible to grid operators.
The project combines data from UK Power Networks’ Open Data Portal with OCF’s open-source code, uncovering ‘invisible’ energy generated to help grid operators make better forecasts and decisions. This in turn will open space on the grid for more low-carbon technologies to connect.
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‘Seeing’ the sun
According to UK Power Networks in a release, thousands of homes and businesses generate solar energy daily that never gets formally measured because it happens behind customers’ smart meters.
This makes it harder for grid operators to predict energy flows accurately – important for planning upgrades to the network and buying flexibility at the right time, especially on sunny days when solar output surges.
This is where UK Power Networks’ AI-driven project comes in, analysing historical weather and satellite data alongside the utility’s substation measurements to estimate how much solar power is being generated in real time.
The model maps rooftop solar generation without relying on imagery, using these insights to feed into a forecasting model that predicts how much unmetered solar energy will be produced at each primary substation.
Commenting in a release was Luca Grella, head of innovation at UK Power Networks: “This project is about shining a light on the solar power we can’t currently see.
“By using AI to estimate and forecast rooftop solar generation, we’re unlocking a clearer, smarter view of the electricity system — one that helps us plan better, reduce costs and accelerate the journey to Net Zero. We’re excited to uncover what’s been hidden and put that clean energy to work for everyone.”
Dan Travers, co-founder of Open Climate Fix, said: “We believe that modern technology can provide transformative solutions that will enable a more efficient and cost-effective electricity grid.
“Our collaboration with UK Power Networks is the perfect example of how the UK can harness AI to create tools that proactively support the transition to Net Zero. We’re thrilled to be partnering with UK Power Networks on this innovation project, and look forward to delivering work that will have a direct impact for consumers.”
According to UK Power Networks, by the end of 2023, the UK had 20GW of solar power installed, including 4.2GW on homes. Total solar capacity is expected to grow to 90GW by 2035 — enough to power up to 5 million households.
