Calling for connectivity part 2: The Mayors’ plan
Less than a month after the publication of the Rail and Urban Transport Review (RUTR) came the ‘Opportunity through Connectivity’ (OtC) report which was published on 13 September. This reinforces the RUTR’s conclusions by emphasising the importance of rail connectivity, the need for more effective project management, and better use of private finance.
However, while the RUTR’s remit took a strategic overview, the OtC was specifically concerned with improving connectivity between the Midlands and North West of England. It was commissioned by the mayors of West Midlands and Greater Manchester to explore options to enhance connectivity between these regions following the cancellation of HS2 phase 2 in October.
David Higgins, formerly Chairman of HS2, was asked to review the impacts of this decision and opportunities for moving forward. In doing so he was supported by a private sector team led by Arup and supported by Addleshaw Goddard, Arcadis, Dragados, EY, Mace, and Skanska.
Something must be done
OtC explains why doing nothing north of the proposed termination of HS2 at Handscare is not sustainable. Passenger demand on the West Coast Main Line (WCML) has more than doubled since the 2000s to roughly 35 million intercity journeys per year. This makes it one of the busiest rail lines in Europe.
Moreover, parts of the WCML carry 60 freight trains per day and are forecast to carry double this number. The OtC report is confident that within the next decade travel demand on the London-Manchester corridor will exceed the maximum capacity of the line.
The report is also clear on how high quality transport infrastructure stimulates economic activity. It compares the German Rhine-Rhur regions with Greater Manchester, South Yorkshire, and the Midlands. Both these regions have a population of 11 to 13 million yet the German region, which has high-speed rail links, has a GDP of £226 billion, compared with £132 billion for the UK region. Bringing the Manchester and Birmingham city regions up to UK average productivity would add £43 billion annually to the UK economy.
MNWRL
Having considered various options, OtC considers that the best way forward is a new Midlands-North West Rail Link (MNWRL). The comprises two new lines delivered in a staged manner. The first is the Staffordshire Connector which would follow the route of HS2 phase 2a which already has parliamentary powers. The second new line is the Cheshire Connector which would run from Crewe to a point on the proposed Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) line between Warrington and Manchester. Using NPR to reach Manchester will enhance the business case of both schemes.
The report stresses that to avoid abortive costs the Cheshire Connector design needs to be urgently progressed to inform NPR design. Work would also be required at Crewe station in accordance with the requirements of Network Rail and local stakeholders.
These new lines would be designed for 300km/h, built to UK loading gauge, and have ballasted track. This compares with HS2’s continental loading gauge, slab track, and 360 – 400km/h speed. Together with improved project management, it is considered that MNWRL will be 60-75% the cost of HS2 phase 2.
With HS2 phase 2a’s parliamentary powers expiring in February 2026, key strategic decisions are needed by early 2025. Furthermore, to minimise capital costs, greater engagement of private sector expertise is needed to drive efficiency. The report has examples of how this has been done in Europe. For example, the Tours-Bordeaux high-speed line was constructed by a consortium which owns, maintains, and operates the line over a 50-year concession period.
The OtC report offers an achievable solution which will make best use of otherwise wasted HS2 costs. This needs to be delivered before the quality of connectivity worsens as travel demand grows to create a major barrier to economic growth.
