IEA: Ten energy actions for Ukraine as winter approaches

Ukraine has endured two winter periods since the start of the war with Russia. With the third around the corner, the IEA has listed 10 key energy actions that can help safeguard the country’s energy security.

A step change in the intensity of Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector has created serious risks as the latest winter period approaches – requiring swift action and additional support to ensure Ukrainian citizens have reliable access to power and heating, according to a new report from the IEA.

The report, Ukraine’s Energy Security and the Coming Winter, proposes 10 immediate actions that Ukraine and its international partners can take to address the country’s urgent energy security vulnerabilities and bolster longer-term energy resilience.

Commenting on the report today during a press debriefing was Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA: “Today, the reason I am here is to bring everybody’s attention to the very fragile energy situation in Ukraine today and even more this coming winter.

“Last June, we decided to make a report on the energy sector of Ukraine for the coming winter, when it was already fragile.

“This situation is very delicate, especially with winter coming. Even before this attack, because of the previous attacks…two thirds of Ukrainian power generation capacity was lost. And with the incoming winter, as temperatures drop, energy demand increases and this will be a major issue for electricity and for heating in Ukraine.

“This may lead to consequences beyond the energy sector as people will look to move to places where they can have shelter and heating. This may also go beyond the social and energy issue into political consequences.

“This is why we came up with the 10-point plan.”

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The 10-point plan

The IEA’s recommended 10-point plan includes the following actions:

1. Bolster the physical and cyber security of Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure

Repair and construction work needs to be done with a view towards protecting assets against further attacks, especially at crucial nodes in the system like the network substations near nuclear power plants. This includes not only fortification, concealment and defence measures against modern military technologies, but also protection against attempted cyberattacks, which have tripled since the invasion.

2. Expedite the delivery of equipment and spare parts for repairs

The donation, sale or lease of essential equipment – such as transformers, generators and spare parts – has been an essential component of international support to Ukraine. This is now more important than ever and needs to be facilitated by streamlined import procedures and a clear prioritisation of needs.

3. Increase and decentralise power supply

Large energy assets are more vulnerable to attack, so decentralisation brings clear security benefits.

Ukraine has seen a massive influx of diesel generators to provide back-up power. Accelerating deployment of smaller-scale gas-fired combined heat and power plants, and solar PV and wind systems complemented by batteries and other storage technologies is crucial to increase the resilience of supply. A particular focus is needed on supply for hospitals, schools, water pumps and mobile networks.

4. Expand electricity transmission capacity with the European Union

Ukraine and its partners swiftly moved to synchronise Ukraine and Moldova with the main European electricity system after the 2022 invasion, but the current limits on transmission capacity are set by relatively conservative guidance on network risk management.

An expansion of west-to-east electricity flows in support of Ukraine is possible but requires political support.

5. Engage consumers in energy saving and demand response, while continuing investments in energy efficiency

A social tariff that safeguards a certain volume of consumption at subsidised rates, after which consumers pay a higher price, would help to incentivise efficient practices and investments, supported by public information campaigns that advise on energy efficiency measures for immediate impact as well as longer-term gains. Lowering the default temperature for district heating can also provide quick savings.

6. Prepare back-up options for winter heating

Expedited delivery of smaller combined heat and power units should focus on bolstering supply in the worst-affected regions in the east. Investment in reliable back-up options should also include liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) heaters, wood and coal stoves, and associated reserves of fuel, especially for rural areas.

7. Build up natural gas storage levels

Ukraine’s storage sites play a key role in meeting winter gas demand. Ukraine and its international partners need to ensure that inventory levels are adequate ahead of the winter to ensure that the gas system can react to unexpected demand or supply shocks.

8. Strengthen firm gas import capacities from the European Union

Some of the current arrangements that guarantee the availability of capacity for gas flows to Ukraine are expiring. They need to be extended and reinforced, as necessary, to provide Ukraine with assured options for import. Operating the trans-Balkan pipeline system in reverse mode, with a more competitive tariff structure, would enhance gas supply security for Ukraine and Moldova.

9. Coordinate approaches to Ukraine and Moldova

While not subject to the same physical risks from attacks, the coming winter could also be destabilising in Moldova, including Transnistria, as gas and electricity flows and relationships move to a new footing.

Energy security issues in Ukraine and Moldova are closely linked, and investments in new sources of supply, energy efficiency and reinforced interconnections with neighbouring countries bring both national and regional gains. This requires coordinated strategies that recognise the inter-related nature of risks across the region and act quickly to mitigate them.

10. Lay the groundwork for a modern, market-based, resilient and sustainable Ukrainian energy system, well integrated with the EU system

The immediate priority is to mitigate the extreme risks over the coming winter, but it will be vital to start actions that have a longer lead time – including investment in reinforced transmission corridors with western neighbours – and to integrate, wherever possible, a medium-term vision for a new Ukrainian energy system into the immediate response.

The continued war

Ukraine’s energy system has endured two successive winters since Russia’s invasion in February 2022. But following a significant escalation of attacks since spring 2024 on power plants, heat plants, transmission networks and more, the country’s energy infrastructure is under huge strain.

Even before an unprecedented wave of attacks in late August, more than two-thirds of Ukraine’s pre-war power generation capacity was not available because it was destroyed, damaged or under occupation.

Over the summer, rolling blackouts and other unscheduled interruptions to supply became the norm, with knock-on effects for all aspects of daily life, including water supplies.

Yet the situation could become even more dire as the days get shorter and colder.

According to the report, a yawning gap between available electricity supply and peak demand risks emerging – bringing the threat of even more severe disruptions to hospitals, schools and other key institutions in the depths of winter. Heat supply to Ukraine’s major cities is also at risk, and lower-than-average temperatures could strain domestic supplies of natural gas.

Added Birol: “This coming winter will be extremely fragile for Ukraine and its energy system.

“We cannot afford to fail, from an energy angle, from an economic angle, from a social angle and beyond.”

Originally published on Enlit World.