Pendolino plan for HS2

Under current plans, in about seven years’ time HS2 trains from Old Oak Common (OOC) will join the West Coast Main Line (WCML) at Handsacre Junction just north of Lichfield. These trains will replace most of the WCML long distance trains that currently start at London Euston as this line is now almost full to capacity. As the HS2 trains will have 100 fewer seats than the current Class 390 Pendolino trains, introducing HS2 services will reduce WCML passenger capacity north of Birmingham by 17%.

HS2 trains running between OOC and Handsacre will be 25 minutes faster than conventional trains on the WCML from London. Yet HS2 trains do not tilt and so are estimated to be 13 minutes slower than Pendolinos between Handsacre and Glasgow. As a result, with current stopping patterns, HS2 trains will only offer, at best, a 12-minute time saving between London and Glasgow which is a 4.4% saving in journey time. Manchester will get a 22-minute journey time saving as the HS2 train’s lack of tilt is less of a problem for this shorter journey.

HS2 will offer a significant increase in capacity both between London and Birmingham and between London and Rugby, as it will take traffic off this section of the WCML. It will also reduce the journey time between London and Birmingham from 81 to 45 minutes.
Hence, while HS2 will greatly benefit Birmingham, it will reduce passenger capacity on other long distance WCML services and offer minimal time savings for longer distance trains. Given the huge cost of HS2 this will, to say the least, be an embarrassment.

Botched curtailment

This situation is the result of the previous Prime Minister’s decision to cancel the HS2 line between Fradley, near Handsacre Junction, and Manchester (HS2 phase 2) without considering the consequences. For example, the first part of this line between Fradley and Crewe (HS2 phase 2a) would have significantly increased the benefits from the core HS2 route from London to Birmingham and Handsacre by relieving capacity on the WCML.

As HS2 phase 2a is routed through open countryside, this line would also have been much less expensive than the core HS2 route which required extensive tunnelling and multiple viaducts. Parliament recognised that there is a strong case for HS2 phase 2a by passing an Act in 2021 granting powers for its construction.

HS2 stations have 400-metre station platforms to accommodate 1,000-seat HS2 trains formed of 2 x 200-metre units. With the possible exception of Crewe and Carlisle, conventional stations would require major alterations to accept 400-metre trains and so can only be served by single 200-metre HS2 trains.

With the cancellation of HS2 phase 2 there will be no station at Manchester with 400-metre platforms. Hence HS2 trains to Manchester have to be single 200-metre units with only 504 seats. The current 11-coach Pendolinos are 266-metres long with 607 seats.

The Network North document justified HS2’s curtailment by claiming that what is left of HS2 will increase WCML passenger capacity by 86% to 250,000 seats a day. This contrasts with the reality of HS2 trains having 17% fewer seats than current trains.

A further consequence of cancelling of HS2 phase 2a is that it removes the requirement for the north chord of the delta junction outside Birmingham as there is now no capacity for HS2 trains between Birmingham and Manchester. This chord is 4.4km long and consists of cuttings, embankments, and the 1.5km, 42-span, Water Orton No 1 viaduct. Although this work will be completed, Chris understands that it is now proposed that no track will be laid on this chord.

Hence, without HS2 phase 2a there can no benefit from the huge expense of constructing this chord, or indeed the cost of building the large Birmingham Curzon Street station which was intended to serve HS2 trains to Manchester. Yet this botched cancellation is a reality that must be faced. This leaves the urgent question of how to make the best use of what is left of HS2 and, in particular, to ensure no loss of WCML passenger capacity north of Handsacre Junction.

The Pendolino plan

In the absence of any Government or industry plan, enter Chris Gibb an experienced railway manager whose CV includes six years as chief operating officer of Virgin West Coast Trains. On his own initiative, in discussion with his numerous senior industry contacts, Chris developed a plan to maximise HS2/WCML passenger capacity using life extended Pendolinos running at 155mph. He intends this to be an interim plan from 2030 to 2040 which allows time for decisions to be taken and executed on Northern Powerhouse Rail, HS2 extensions, Euston, the provision of longer platforms, and the development of a long-term rolling stock strategy.

Using Pendolinos in this way will not only increase the passenger capacity of HS2 trains but would also reduce journey times on Scottish services. HS2 originally proposed to run two 200-metre trains between London and Scotland formed of two 200-metre sections for Glasgow and Edinburgh which were to split / join at Carlisle. However, the power draw and wire bounce from a 400-metre train with two pantographs would limit speed north of Handsacre to 110mph. Chris estimates that running a single 125mph tilting Pendolino between London and Glasgow would be 17 minutes faster than HS2 trains.

A recent assessment concluded that, with the current maintenance regime, Pendolinos can remain in service until 2046. One reason for this is that they have a good fatigue life as they were commissioned for 140mph running but are limited to a 125mph. Furthermore, their recent refurbishment showed that these trains had minimal car body corrosion.

On a special test run in 2003, a Pendolino recorded 145.5mph. Chris has been in discussions with Alstom engineers who have no doubt that Pendolinos can be fitted with new bogies and traction systems for 155mph running in non-tilt mode on HS2 lines as this technology is in reliable operation on recent Pendolino builds.

The UK’s Pendolinos were built in 2004 at Washwood Heath in Birmingham (where HS2’s train depot is now being built) with additional coaches built in Savigliano, Italy, in 2009. The Pendolino tilting train platform is widely used across Europe, in particular on Italian conventional and high-speed lines. Of the 56 Pendolino trains in service, it is the 35 x 11 coaches sets that Chris proposes should be upgraded for 155mph running.

HS2 has ordered 54 x 200-metre trains with a maximum speed of 225mph. With the lack of 400-metre platforms north of Birmingham, it might be thought a good idea to vary this order to produce fewer longer trains. Yet, this is not feasible as the Washwood Heath depot is being built to accommodate 200-metre trains. Furthermore, having 200-metre trains makes it possible to run 400-metre trains once 400-metre platforms can be provided.

Hence, this proposal does not require any variation to the HS2 train order. However, it does propose reducing their normal operational speed from the planned 206mph to 186mph to limit the speed differential with the Pendolinos to maintain capacity on the HS2 line. This would increase the journey time between OOC and Birmingham by three minutes. Chris estimates that using Pendolinos on HS2 services would leave 27 HS2 trains to be redeployed on conventional and HS2 services. This would enable the 9-car Pendolinos to be withdrawn and the displacement elsewhere of the 10 x 7-car Class 807 units that are currently being delivered.

Service pattern

Chris proposes that there should be 11 trains per hour (tph) on HS2 out of London of which 6 are HS2 trains and 5 are Pendolino as shown in the table.

In addition, two trains per hour from Birmingham Curzon Street to Manchester using single 200-metre HS2 trains are proposed. However, this would require completion of the delta triangle’s north chord and a “New Northern Line” as described later.

These trains would be flighted so that the leading 186mph train from London will be three minutes behind the trailing 155mph train when it reaches Birmingham’s delta junction. Chris advises that this plan would still work if it was only possible to run the Pendolinos at 140mph, although it would entail a slight increase in journey time.

HS2’s London stations

There are reports that the boring of the 7.2km twin tunnels between OOC and Euston will start in 2025 as Government is now funding the £1 billion for this work. However, as both funding arrangements and the design of HS2’s Euston station have yet to be finalised, it would seem that OOC will be HS2’s interim London terminus for some years.

This is a matter of concern as, while the Elizabeth line makes OOC a more convenient destination for many travellers, a large number will prefer Euston and so may avoid HS2 trains as a result. Having a mix of HS2 and WCML services terminating at two different London stations is likely to present a confused product which may reduce passenger numbers until HS2’s Euston station becomes operational.

With OOC likely to be a terminal station for some years, it is important to maximise its capacity. On the basis of experience at other similar terminal stations, Chris considers that it should be possible to operate 11 trains per hour. However, this will require improvements to manage passenger flows and, at the station’s eastern end, a reversing siding located in the Euston tunnel connected to each platform. This siding would reduce the movements needed through the west end crossovers. Currently, there is no published track layout for the eastern end of OOC while it functions as a terminus.

The proposal to use Pendolinos would give HS2 stations a mix of rolling stock with different door positions. Hence it will no longer be possible for HS2’s stations to have platform screen doors (PSD). Chris does not consider that his proposal would affect HS2 station platform stepping distances as the Pendolino’s fold-out step is higher than the standard. However, there may be a requirement to redesign platforms and vary the train platform step configuration as HS2 platforms (and indeed all of HS2) is designed to accommodate trains built to continental GC gauge.

As a result, there will be a gap of about 350mm between coaches built to UK loading gauge and the platform edge. This may be considered unacceptable without PSD. Reducing HS2’s specified 1.655-metre platform offset to bring platforms closer to the track may be the best way of addressing this issue. However, this would rule out the future use of dedicated GC gauge HS2 trains.

ETCS and ATO

HS2’s core line was designed to carry 18 tph and be signalled with the European Train Control Signalling (ETCS) and Automatic Train Operation (ATO). The cab signalling provided by ETCS is essential as drivers cannot reliably respond to lineside signals above 125mph. It was considered that ATO was essential to achieve 18 tph as this needs each train to have exactly the same performance characteristics.

However, with the cancellation of the HS2 legs to Leeds in 2021 and to Manchester last year, the core HS2 line will now have fewer trains. Hence, Chris considers that ATO is not required. Dropping ATO would save significant costs and significantly reduce both the driver training workload and the complexity of commissioning the new HS2 line.

Between Warrington and Gretna, it is planned to fit ETCS by 2030 as part of the TriLink programme for intelligent renewal and enhancement of the WCML north as described in Issue 206 (Jan-Feb 2024). This will allow Pendolinos to run at 140mph. If a similar enhancement / ETCS programme were to be implemented in Scotland, Chris expects that a 3 hour 40 minute London to Glasgow service stopping only at Preston and the Birmingham Interchange station would be possible. He considers that, north of Crewe, it should be possible to flight 2 x 140mph Pendolinos in a 20-minute period each hour to avoid delaying or being delayed by other trains.
As ETCS provides the driver with a continuous advice of permitted speed, it also offers a more flexible application of enhanced permissible speeds which could enable non-tilting HS2 trains to run at higher speeds.

New high speed lines

Although London to Manchester is one of the busiest inter-city train routes, it will only be possible to run 266-metre Pendolinos to Manchester until 400-metre platforms can be provided there. Current plans are that this will be done as part of the Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) proposal to build a high speed line between Liverpool and Manchester via Warrington and Manchester airport which will use part of the cancelled HS2 Manchester leg. The aspiration is that the NPR high speed line will have an underground station in Manchester city centre with 400-metre platforms which would be on the scale of Stratford International. It would be expected that the NPR Manchester Airport station would also have 400-metre platforms to enable 400-metre HS2 trains to also serve the area south of Manchester.

As it will take over 10 years to provide this NPR station, there may be a case for an interim solution. One possibility is the provision of 400-metre platforms within Piccadilly station if new platforms could be provided on the north side of the station for Hadfield services.

Chris’s proposal suggests extending the NPR high speed line by building a “New Northern Line” (NNL) between Fradley and Manchester, designed for 155mph. NNL is the proposal suggested by the Mayors of Manchester and Birmingham after HS2 was curtailed. This would take HS2 services from London to Manchester, Glasgow, Liverpool and Blackpool. It would also be able to carry HS2 Birmingham to Manchester services which would take 50 minutes instead of the current 88 minutes. Once NNL is built, London to Manchester HS2 services could be extended to Leeds.

He advises that the NNL would be built using the Parliamentary powers of the High Speed Rail (West Midlands to Crewe) Act, which has not been repealed. NNL would therefore essentially follow the route of HS2 phase 2a. Chris believes that the NNL line can be built at a much lower cost than the HS2 line, although connecting it onto the conventional network at Crewe will be a significant cost. For this reason, he believes that the construction of NNL should be managed by Network Rail as it should be an integral part of the Crewe remodelling project.

Next steps

The problem that the Gibb proposal addresses is urgent. Unless a government-backed plan is agreed soon, introducing HS2 services will reduce WCML passenger capacity north of Birmingham. Although this proposal is an entirely rolling stock solution, there are infrastructure issues that need to be considered. These include beneficial infrastructure enhancements to maximise the capacity of OOC as an interim terminus, an assessment of whether 400-metre platforms could be provided at Manchester Piccadilly, and whether HS2 station platforms need to be redesigned to reduce the gap between coach and platform.

The Pendolino proposal increases passenger capacity on HS2 services north of Birmingham without the need for any infrastructure enhancements or variation to the order for HS2 trains. It also reduces the cost, time, and complexity of commissioning and traincrew training. Essentially it makes the best use of existing infrastructure, people, and the HS2 trains that have been ordered to achieve the required benefits as quickly as possible. It also is sufficiently flexible to allow for different project completion dates in the early 2030s e.g. HS2 phase 1, NNL, NPR, WCML, and ETCS.

This rolling stock solution also does not require public finance. The Pendolinos are owned by Angel Trains which could fund the enhancements and negotiate their upgrade programme with Alstom. It is also worthy of note that a major fleet overhaul is scheduled for 2026-2029 when ETCS, new bogies, and new traction systems could be installed. The overhaul is being planned now at Angel Trains’ facilities in Widnes, Crewe, and Derby.

Chris has certainly done the industry a great service in developing this proposal. In it he advises that “I am not being paid by anyone to prepare this idea and have no vested interest in any of the organisations mentioned in it. I am an experienced WCML railway operator who wishes to see the emerging HS2 move forward in a manner that best integrates it with our rail network, for our future customers, colleagues, economy and environment.”

He also advises that he is “grateful to the many railway professionals who have encouraged and helped me develop this proposal.”
Whilst speaking to him for this feature I asked what inspired his proposal which clearly involved a lot of work. He advised that he had been speaking to a retired Polmadie driver who, in the early 1980s, drove the Advanced Passenger Train (APT) at 138mph week after week through his hometown of Carluke. After he chided Chris by saying that today’s railwaymen had wasted a golden opportunity, Chris felt he had to do something about it.

So, it seems that a retired Polmadie driver should also be thanked for this Pendolino proposal.

Image credit: David Shirres