EV adoption is accelerating, but could lingering doubts hamper growth?

As the energy transition continues at pace, one core component in 2023 gained renewed attention as a crucial element – electric vehicles. Which is why, to look into their growth in the new year, engineers at EV charger design consultancy Versinetic closely studied market signals to forecast key industry trends for 2024.

Steady EV sales growth despite economic headwinds

EV sales are expected to continue rising steadily in 2024, likely increasing around 50-70% year-over-year. This growth comes despite economic challenges facing consumers like high energy prices and cost-of-living pressures.

We expect that economic issues will only temporarily slow, not reverse, EV adoption trends. Once economic shocks stabilize, fundamental factors underpinning EV growth will persist. Government policy supportive of EVs provides tailwinds in many markets too.

Specifically in the UK, a change in political leadership could accelerate EV sales growth. Any new government will likely emphasize EVs more to meet carbon reduction targets. The previous administration had cut EV subsidies and proposed new taxes, creating temporary uncertainty. A policy shift could quickly boost consumer confidence.

Moreover, once emerging from the current economic crisis, consumers will refocus on long-term fuel savings from driving electric. Both energy security and climate change considerations favor EVs. As more affordable EV options launch too, sales should rebound strongly by 2024.

In summary, the EV transition is slowed but not stopped amidst short-term economic fluctuations. Industry analysts widely agree underlying EV adoption trends remain intact. Thus, electric vehicle sales growth is forecast to continue rising at around a 50-70% annual pace despite facing some economic headwinds.

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Battery electric vehicles surpassing hybrid EVs in sales

We predict that every month moving forward, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will outsell hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). This transition officially began in January 2023. From now on, BEVs will be the second highest selling powertrain behind mild hybrid petrol cars.

BEVs have experienced rapid sales growth in recent years, while HEV sales have stagnated. This trend will accelerate in 2024. Total BEV sales could jump over 70% this year alone as more affordable options launch.

Meanwhile, HEVs have little room left to gain market share given their low starting point. As BEVs expand, they will increasingly eat into petrol and diesel car sales too. Experts forecast BEVs could grab an additional 4% share of total auto sales in 2024.

As BEV options diversify, and prices continue falling, consumers look set to switch away from petrol vehicles more rapidly. Volvo’s decision to cease diesel car production in 2023, for instance, foreshadows moves by other automakers to come. Diesel’s decline will free up even more market share for BEVs to capture.

Battery electric vehicles are poised to dominate the fast-growing EV category moving forward. Their sales will rise by over 70% this year, cementing their position as the number two powertrain overall. Accelerating BEV adoption will directly cut into petrol and diesel sales, signaling the imminent decline of ICE vehicles.

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Combating anti-EV misinformation to become a top priority

The rapid growth of electric vehicles faces a substantial challenge from the proliferation of misinformation on social media and other platforms. EV myths can easily go viral online, sowing public doubts that hinder adoption.

Unfortunately, fact checking efforts simply cannot debunk false narratives as quickly as they spread. More concerning is that those propagating misinformation have even conjured up conspiracy theories – undermining the credibility of fact checkers themselves.

As such, the EV industry is likely to make curbing anti-EV rhetoric a top priority over the coming months. Far more advanced technological solutions are needed to promote truth and combat falsehoods. Failure to get misinformation under control risks slowing the transition to electric transport significantly.

Some compare the scale of the EV transition to the societal impacts from the advent of the printing press centuries ago. What enabled positive outcomes back then was developing better information filters to handle the flood of new media. Similarly, innovative systems to prioritise factual EV narratives today can help to manage this issue.

Specific anti-EV misinformation like doubts over electric grid capacity must be a focus too. However, grid experts have prepared for rising EV numbers for years. The capacity exists, it just needs communicating properly to counter persistent myths.

Ultimately, misinformation indeed threatens to delay EV adoption. However, proactive efforts from industry leaders and policymakers can both provide correctives and slow the spread of false narratives. Prioritising the battle against misinformation will ensure EV growth stays on track through 2024 and beyond.

About the authors

This article was written by Dunstan Power, managing director, Versinetic and the engineering team at Versinetic.

Power is a chartered electronics engineer providing management of design, production and support in electronics to Versinetic’s clients.

The EV engineering team has experience designing EV charging points going back almost 10 years, when they developed new software and electronics for the EV charging stations at the London 2012 Olympics.