GB’s 2025 smart meter rollout target a struggle to meet analysts say

Britain’s 100% smart meter rollout by the end of 2025 is likely to be unattainable, a new analysis from Cornwall Insight suggests.

While the rollout has passed the halfway mark with 57% penetration for electricity and 53% for gas at the end of 2022 according to the latest government figures, Cornwall Insight suggests that with realistic installation targets for suppliers, the 100% goal is unlikely to be met within the remaining timeframe.

The analyst says this conclusion is based on the supplier installation figures and the annual tolerance levels by which they may deviate from their targets.

All suppliers are expected to achieve a target coverage of over 50% by the end of 2023, but some have higher levels.

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E Gas and Electricity has the highest target coverage for 2023, as it did also in 2022, with goals of 72% and 64% respectively.

Others with higher target coverages above 60% for 2023 are Utility Warehouse, Ovo Energy – with its increase also due to higher smart meter penetration – Shell Energy and Ecotricity.

So Energy showed a significant increase in its 2023 target coverage, rising from 33% in 2022 to 57%.

Domestic smart meter target by suppliers between 2022-23. Source: Cornwall Insights.

Cornwall Insight comments that in 2022, some suppliers missed their targets as the tolerance levels set did not consider suppliers gaining customers, including those gained through the ‘supplier of last resort’ process for customers of suppliers in insolvency. This will make reaching this year’s targets even harder.

“Smart meters have been shown to decrease bills and reduce peak time energy consumption. Additionally getting to 100% coverage would be an important milestone for other industry workstreams such as market-wide half hourly settlement, helping to support flexible energy use and facilitate the transition to net zero,” comments Mikael Mahmud, Consumer Markets Analyst at Cornwall Insight.

“However, while suppliers have made progress in increasing their smart meter rollout, given the number of variables in play, from the upfront costs through to customer willingness to install the meters, the government must weigh carefully their 100% coverage goal against the acceptable tolerance level.”

He adds that it is important to acknowledge that hitting or missing smart meter installation targets may not always be within the supplier’s control.