326 million smart meters across Europe by 2028 – report

The penetration of smart meters across Europe is expected to increase from about 60% in 2023 to 78% in 2028, Berg Insight reports.

In the latest Europe smart meter review, Berg Insight reports that at the end of 2023, there were more than 186 million smart electricity meters – an increase of about 4% over 2022.

By 2028 the installed base is projected to grow at an over 6% CAGR to reach 78% penetration by 2028, driven by second generation rollouts in countries such as the UK, Italy, Spain and Sweden alongside first generation projects in Germany, Poland and Greece.

For 2022, the last year for which data is broken down, Italy was the largest market in terms of shipments with around 2.6 million units installed during the year.

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This was followed by the UK with more than 2.5 million units and Sweden with shipments of around 1.4–1.5 million units.

Poland and France rounded out the top five in terms of shipment volumes, while other markets with large installation volumes during the year included Austria and Belgium.

Looking ahead, as countries aim to meet targets, Berg Insight projects a total of more than 88 million smart electricity meters to be deployed across the region from 2024 to 2028.

In the period, replacements of first-generation smart meters are expected to be in the range of 25–40% of total smart meter shipments in Europe throughout the next five years, or 4–8 million units annually.

Eastern Europe

With the rollouts in many countries in western Europe and the Nordics now either well advanced or largely completed, the focus is increasingly shifting to central, east and southeast Europe, Berg Insight comments.

The outlook for the region has improved significantly over the past years with multiple major rollouts now planned or already under way. Overall, the CEE and southeast European region is expected to account for as much as half of the annual EU smart meter shipments in 2028, up from less than a third in 2022.

Looking only at the growth in annual shipment volumes of first-generation smart meter projects, all the ten fastest growing markets can be found in CEE and southeastern Europe.

Wireless technologies

Berg Insight also points to the impact on Europe’s smart metering market from the development of new wireless technologies for IoT communications and in particular the growing traction of 3GPP-based LPWA technologies such as NB-IoT and LTE-M.

Several major deployments utilising these technologies are now either underway or about to begin in Benelux, the Nordics and Baltics.

3GPP-based LPWA is expected to more than quadruple its smart meter connectivity market share throughout the forecast period.

At the moment, various forms of PLC will remain the dominant technology group in terms of installed base although standalone wireless communications options are forecast to account for over half of shipment volumes during the forecast period.

Gas smart meters

The adoption of smart metering is also growing fast in the European gas distribution market, Berg Insight reports.

At the end of 2023, the installed base was around 56 million units and is expected to increase at a rate of around 5-6 million units annually to 78 million units, amounting to a penetration of over 61%, by 2028.

Shipment volumes are expected to decrease in Italy until 2025 and then increase until the end of the forecast period while yearly shipments in France are at around 0.1 million.

The UK market is expected to gradually ramp up smart gas meter installations and reach a peak of 3.4 million units in 2025.

A significant volume of smart gas meter installations is also anticipated in additional countries over the coming years, particularly Spain and Belgium, where the former will account for almost a quarter of yearly shipment volumes in Europe by 2028.