1.5TW of additional transmission needed for net zero by 2040

1.5TW of new transmission at a cost of $1.7 trillion could deliver savings of $3 trillion in the net zero transition by 2040, new analysis based on the Future Energy Outlook shows.

The study utilising this new planning tool from climate analytics non-profit TransitionZero envisions massive expansions of zero carbon generation and transmission across the world, with the grids acting as global clusters and corridors of trade.

The potential savings and infrastructure requirements – based on the difference in costs between building a global net-zero power system by optimally expanding transmission and interconnectors versus putting constraints on their deployment – vary by region and country.

For example Africa and Asia are seen as becoming net exporters of clean electricity with their export revenue offsetting the increased system costs, while the greatest savings are seen in North America with interconnectors between the US and Canada.

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Other corridors are foreseen within Latin America and east-to-west from Asia, but notably no major transmission build-outs are projected in Africa, with the case for an African supergrid not supported.

Rather in sub-Saharan Africa a balance of interconnectors and mini grids is needed.

The Middle East and North Africa is seen as becoming the world’s electricity hub, with a total system capacity reaching 2,000GW and the countries becoming exporters or hubs to Asia, Europe and Africa.

With Europe’s power network already highly connected, only modest expansions are foreseen by 2040 but strengthened Euro-African links would help to decouple Europe from Russia.

China and India are seen as having the potential to become regional energy powerhouses, with a total zero carbon capacity reaching 10,600GW, while Southeast Asia also could become a regional power cluster, with these countries having complementary power systems that suit connectivity.

“Grid modernisation is the blind spot of the net zero transition. Too often legacy ‘black-boxed’ data has detached energy models from what’s happening on the ground, preventing the grid build-out from keeping pace with the influx of renewables,” says Matthew Gray, CEO and co-founder of TransitionZero.

“Our main enemy is time – there’s no time for missteps. For climate targets to be met, the effective build-out of transmission infrastructure, underpinned by open data is critical. Moreover, governments need to grasp that a decision not to invest in the grid, is a decision to build more expensive capacity, such as nuclear and biomass.”

Transmission best placement of resources

Nearly 60 regions, including the US and EU are backing a target to triple global renewable energy capacity, to reach 11TW, by 2030 as a primary outcome of the COP28 climate summit.

Transmission allows for the best placement of these resources and reduces the amount of generation and storage required.

The analysis, which was carried out with researchers from Dartmouth College, Simon Fraser University, University College London and Climate Compatible Growth, also identifies ten ‘cables to change the world’ representing the bulk capacity of interconnectors between two regions as well as six ‘enablers’ to promote greater transmission rollout.

These are to reform transmission planning and permitting, set long-term national targets, attract investments by identifying the ‘no regret’ options, prepare the labour force and supply chains, ensure public stakeholder engagement and assess the potential for international cooperation.

Future Energy Outlook

The Future Energy Outlook platform is an open source tool combining satellite and on the ground data on power plants and grid infrastructure covering 163 countries and 99% of the world’s population.

The system optimisation includes projections of future electricity demand, fuel prices, technological costs and performance, as well as policies and regulations in order to give a long-term view of the changing energy system.

The platform is set for user beta release at the COP 28 summit.

In 2024, a model builder should be added to the features to enable non-technical users to expedite energy transition planning decisions through an intuitive web interface.

TransitionZero’s stated ultimate goal is to create and scale a global standard for energy planning data.